Originally Posted by Huinesoron
Agreed. That's true of every historical empire (it's notable that the Romans 'wiped out' the pre-invasion tribal names in Britain, only to have them reappear on gravestones less than a generation after the legions withdrew), and it's especially true in Middle-earth, which was written by Tolkien and has a clear focus on 'there is always hope'.
Where does that hope lie? Let's take your premise, Rhun charioteer, and run with it. Sam manages to kill Gollum in Shelob's lair (he cracks his head on a rock), and so Frodo successfully claims the Ring. Sam tries to reason with him, but fails. The Nazgul arrive, and - per Galadriel back in Lorien, I think - take Frodo captive and present him to Sauron. (Sam may actually survive and stay hidden; I'm sure there's a story in that.)
Sauron reclaims the Ring. But... what's happened outside the Black Gate? Tolkien seems to imply that the Armies of the West were on the verge of victory when the Ring was destroyed, and there's been time between for them to achieve it. That means, far from all being dead, Aragorn and Gandalf are now pressing through the Black Gate - and Aragorn is carrying the sword of Elendil.
I think, far from a quick defeat for the West, we're looking at a second Siege of Mordor. The Ring doesn't make Sauron all-powerful, or else he wouldn't have been defeated so often in the Second Age. He'll want to stall, to have time to bring up more of his forces - and that means there's time for the likes of Legolas and Gimli - and Eomer - to run back home and bring up reinforcements.
But okay: assume they fail. Assume Tolkien decided to be a miserable grump and make them lose. Every significant military force among the Free Peoples has been wiped out. What does Sauron do?
Well, he's not Morgoth. He doesn't want to burn Gondor - he wants to rule it. (Witness Minas Morgul - and Numenor.) He may end up in permanent war with Erebor - Thorin Stonehelm doesn't seem the kind to submit - but I don't think he could easily break the Lonely Mountain.
Rohan goes over to the Dunlendings. Gondor, under Steward Faramir, is probably forced into some version of Sauron's offer made at the Black Gate; I think Faramir would probably accept it for the good of the people, now that all hope of military resistance is over.
The elves, of course, don't get that chance, and I think you're right that they flee or die. Lorien and Rivendell at least have to go. Eriador... I mean, does Sauron care? There's nothing there except the Shire. Oh... yeah. The Shire. Where the Hobbits live. Like the Hobbits who stole his Ring. Yes, Sauron cares, and there's goblins swarming out of the Misty Mountains to attack it.
Merry and Pippin are both still alive, and guided by Gandalf. What would they do in the face of an oncoming orcish rabble? Well... both Theoden and Denethor, their respective liege-lords, evacuated their own civilians in the face of invasion. Could the sons of the Thain and the Master pull off a mass exodus of the Shire? They probably have a couple of years, so it's certainly doable.
I think probably yes. The hobbits scatter and go into hiding, not letting the Big Folk or the Orcs see them. When the army arrives, it is to untended fields and empty houses. Sauron, needless to say, is furious.
That's the stage set. We have at least three formerly-free groups who could conceivably start a rebellion, but unless Sauron loosened his grip, there's not really anything they could do. And why would he ever do that?
Oh, yeah: because he's Sauron. He's gotten revenge on the Numenoreans. He's been thwarted of his revenge against the Hobbits (he probably has hunting parties roaming through Eriador after them). He's finally gotten rid of the elves. What's his next play?
Valinor. Ultimately, after all his own grievances, Sauron still wants to get back at the Valar for their humiliation of his master. That's why he turned the Numenoreans, Saruman, the Noldor by way of Ring-making. It is his ultimate obsession.
I have no idea what he'd do. But it seems not unlikely that it would be enough to get Manwe to once again put in a call to Iluvatar: "hey, your kids are acting up again, here's the keys, we'll let you sort it out." Last time that happened, the entire shape of the world was changed. Can we even conceive of what the One would do this time around?
... maybe.
Merry Christmas. ^_^
hS
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