[the phantom]

MESPN Quarterfinal Round Table
Live from Angband

Philip McPhantom: It's semifinal time, and we’re here to discuss the quarters and predict who will play in the final. I’m Philip McPhantom, MESPN Lead Football Coordinator, and with me I have the dragon Ruharg the Red, the lead sports editor of Monster Magazine, and Ar-Tar-Aradil, sports writer for Westernesse Weekly and president of the Numenorean Association for the Advancement of Football.

Ruharg: Exciting times ahead!

Ar-Tar-Aradil: Let's get cracking!

Philip McP: First things first- Ar-Tar is no longer undefeated.

ATA: Sad to say. But still, 11 and 1 isn't too bad.

Ruharg: Perhaps I'll catch you yet.

ATA: I'd have to really nose-dive at the end, here.

PMcP: But before we go to those picks, let's look back at the last round.

ATA: We were unanimous selecting AC, but Ruharg was more correct about the margin.

R: You saw the game. I called it right.

PMcP: Indeed, AC was simply too much for Valimar to handle.

ATA: They had the better array of athletes, and they were battle-tested.

R: And they'll be facing another battle in the next round. Not the one I thought they'd face, though.

PMcP: Yes, FC had the edge on Real after all. It went to overtime and all, but I think the right team won.

ATA: No mistake- FC played a fantastic game and just executed an inch better when it counted.

R: And I think perhaps I underestimated their determination to undo last year's quarterfinal flame-out.

PMcP: And then there was the Hithlum-Eriador contest.

ATA: The one that broke the streak.

R: You had too much faith in Eriador's defense. It's rock-solid, no mistake, but defense doesn't trump offense in the playoffs.

PMcP: Indeed- Hithlum's offense proved equal to Eriador's defense, while Eriador couldn't score themselves. Elrond can't win a game by himself- not with Turin and friends on the field.

ATA: And both Ruhard and I had TIG advancing. Too bad- I was rooting for my home team, but Armenelos just didn't have it in them.

R: TIG just didn't have the weaknesses or lapses to take advantage of.

ATA: And PhantomWolf. Again.

R: Oh, that's right. He's the one that got Armenelos a couple years ago.

ATA: Don't remind me.

PMcP: And how about the next round- will PhantomWolf and TIG continue to impress?

ATA: Yes. They can handle Hithlum's offense as well as about anyone in the tournament. BoroWolf or NilpWolf will be tasked with shadowing Turin and denying him the ball and roughing him up if he gets it, and Drauglin's speed and agility will be used to take Beleg out of the game.

PMcP: So you don't think they go with a more team defense concept like Eriador?

ATA: No. They excel at winning straight up with athleticism.

R: Hithlum isn't a two-man team, though. Hurin and Hador are more than competent scorers.

ATA: TIG will have another Wolf defender to deal with one of them, essentially turning Hithlum into a single-threat squad supported by a midfield and defenders that frankly won't be able to support that well as they'll have their hands full with the TIG attack.

R: The Hithlum defense isn't without teeth. The size and speed of Arroch will be useful, and their Balrog won't be overpowered or made to look unathletic either.

ATA: I doubt Arroch will be at his best around monsters. They'll make him nervous. And Galdor and Gundor certainly can't be expected to outjump or outrun whoever is left.

R: I don't think anyone will be "left". Arroch and the Balrog will be free to roam a bit- they can close out in a hurry. That might not work against an attack like Miriel and Nerdanel, but the TIG attackers don't necessarily specialize in making a series of pinpoint passes in a crowded offensive zone.

PMcP: That's true. They generally favor making big plays off of free kicks and corners and big runs on counters.

R: Exactly. Hithlum will be able to limit their big play opportunities and hamstring their athletic advantage. And once the ball is theirs one of their big playmakers will have a mismatch and the rest of the team knows how to give him a shot.

ATA: And what if TIG calls in help from one of their attackers.

R: Then they'll be that much easier to defend against.

ATA: With their speed PhantomWolf and Thuringwethil can practically play on both sides of the field, though.

R: So can Arroch and the Balrog. They can help the offense more than you think they will, and it won't hurt them getting back.

PMcP: Okay okay guys, what I'm hearing is that both teams can somewhat counter the other. Do you agree with that?

R: To an extent, but Hithlum has the edge.

ATA: I think TIG does.

PMcP: But it's close?

R: Definitely. I'm picking Hithlum 2-1.

ATA: TIG 2-1.

PMcP: I really have no idea if this thing will be low or high scoring. You'd almost think they could shut each other out or score a handful, depending on the philosophy and flow of things.

R: That's why I picked a score in the middle. I could see 1-0 or 4-3 both happening.

ATA: Same here.

PMcP: Well, I'm going with Ruharg here. I think Turin will not be denied sitting so close to the finals. Plus Turin, Hurin, and Beleg all have recent experience getting the best of TIG in that final two years ago.

R: Yep, they'll know how to play TIG.

ATA: But this Hithlum team isn't 2011 Doriath. Melian, Thingol and Luthien aren't back there in front of Huan.

R: Yes, but-

PMcP: No no, we're running too long on this one. We need to keep moving. How about the other semifinal, AC Beleriand vs FC Valinor?

R: I did a column for Angband's paper right after the quarters and I wrote a piece for TIG just yesterday, and I flip-flopped.

ATA: Ha ha, I know how you feel. I was late with a couple of my submissions because I couldn't decide which team to go with.

PMcP: But you stuck with just one after you decided?

ATA: Yes, I figured I may as well just stay true.

PMcP: So, who did you go with?

ATA: *sigh* AC Beleriand.

R: That's who I landed on.

PMcP: Why?

R: Feanor. I think he's kind of due for a dominant game. And especially against three of his sons and his step-mother, I think his competitive juices will be off the charts.

PMcP: So you don't see that being a disadvantage?

R: No. Do you?

PMcP: AC has been exactly what they need to be all tournament, so if Feanor starts pressing I think it may undo the flow of the offense they've established. He might be a little quick to jump on Angrod and Aegnor for doing something he didn't want, or he may try to take it alone when he should give the ball up... I can see several ways that Feanor could undermine the effort.

R: I disagree. I think when he gets that intense will to win it sharpens and focuses him to the point where he'll simply do everything right. His temper won't get the best of him because that would run counter to his goal.

PMcP: Ar-Tar-Aradil?

ATA: I'm not certain that Feanor will be out for blood or anything- I just think AC is the slightly better team.

R: I think if Feanor doesn't make the difference that FC might be slightly better.

PMcP: I think FC is better. Huan has been one of the best keepers in Arda Cup through the years, plus the defense in front of him is better.

ATA: No, I'd give AC the edge on defenders.

R: How? Eonwe and Fingolfin are a wash, and Indis and Imlach bring different skill sets to the table, but they're essentially a wash. Then Maglor and the Balrog- Roggie has the size and strength, but Maglor has the quickness and is better in possession. Then finally it's Thorondor vs Rochallor, and both have speed but Thorondor is faster and bigger. FC has the better defense.

ATA: Give the Balrog more credit- while Maglor might be equally useful in some situations the Balrog is generally the more useful situational defender.

R: Not against these fast-pace pass-happy offenses. Maglor does a better job staying in the hip pocket of an attacker and not getting carded for anything.

PMcP: Wow- you guys are even arguing when you agree on a result.

R: We wouldn't if Ar-Tar would just have better opinions.

ATA: Hey now, I'm the one with the good record this year.

R: Can we continue on to the midfield since we disagree at the rear?

ATA: Certainly- edge AC. Denethor and Ulrad have the slight edge over Elemmire and Findis, while Angrod and Aegnor are a wash with Argon and Yavanna.

R: No, no- Argon has proven himself the equal of the twins, and Yavanna is better. That's an edge to FC.

ATA: But it's undone by the edge held by the other two midfielders.

R: Which at best makes the whole thing a wash.

ATA: You can't deny the AC edge at the front though.

R: *grumble* No, probably not. Celegorm and Curufin are no slouches though.

ATA: I never said they were, but it doesn't get better than Feanor-Eol.

R: But AC's offensive edge is countered by FC's edges at defense and at keeper.

ATA: But I don't even agree that FC has the defensive edge.

PMcP: All right, all right- if we had more time we'd go into this more, but for right now, let's have the picks.

ATA: AC wins it 2-1.

R: AC wins in overtime or in a shootout.

PMcP: And I'm going with 2-1 to FC.

ATA: No matter what it's going to be amazing to watch.

R: No argument there.

PMcP: Okay guys, thanks for coming on. Enjoy watching, and I'll see you next week to rehash things.

ATA: Later.

R: Have a good one.