At the Downs, seems that a recent fad has been to pit one powerful being in Middle Earth against another, and then to discuss the possibilities of the outcome of such an epic, yet hypothetical battle. We've had the
Balrog vs Witch-King,
Arwen vs Galadriel, southern winged Balrogs vs the wingless northern hairy variety, and
Lobelia Sackville-Baggins circa 2942 vs Rose Cotton smackdown. A contest that's clearly absent and of seemingly more interest, at least to me, all sprung from my rereading of
The Old Forest and
The House of Tom Bombadil chapters in The Fellowship of the Rings. Therein, when the four hobbits - Merry, Pippin, Sam and Frodo - enter the Old Forest, we learn that there are two places that they wish to avoid. The first is the Barrow Downs, adobe of the Barrow Wight - theirs, not ours - as well as the valley of the Withywindle. Merry, our tour guide, says that the Withywindle flows out from the Downs down on through the Old Forest - the queerest part - and later we learn that this where Old Man Willow rests his roots.
The hobbits are steered off their intended path and down into the valley by Old Man Willow. Seemingly this tree commands/controls all of the other trees from the very edge of the Forest, and so by root and branch forces the Hobbits down into his lair. He then traps two and almost drowns one.
Later, after a brief respite at the House of Tom and Goldberry, the hobbits are then ensnared by the Barrow Wight. It catches them with mists and fear and so knocks them out. After stealing the hobbits clothes - a peculiar proclivity for a malignant spirit, possibly a leftover from its college days - the Wight arrays them with jewels and finery then tries to kill at least three of them with a sword.
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So what would happen if we dropped hobbits somewhere between the two, Willow and Wight? Which would win?
First, a little more on our opponents:
Old Man Willow:
- Pros: A mighty singer, green with a black heart, can influence and control trees and little folk at a distance. Methods of dispatching little folk range from drowning, squeezing/constriction, bisection and suffocation.
- Cons: Stationary, has no effect on pack animals, harmed by fire and axes, requires a source of water, impeded by shrubbery, and is very very very old.
The Barrow Wight:
- Pros: Mobile, uses fear to confuse and paralyze victims, makes clothing completely disappear (humiliation?), can kill with bladed weapons and also (possibly) acute tickling.
- Cons: Can be detected by ponies, harmed by sunlight, might be a little too caught up in ritual, may have issues with its Angmar boss, as it is noted that certain ancient weapon artifacts are left around to be conveniently found.
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So hears the wager: Assume we have five sets of four hobbits, much like our four in the Fellowship of the Ring, who enter the Old Forest equidistant between Old Man Willow and the Barrow Downs. These hobbits, in each set, are no more or less knowledgeable than any other, and do not know what happens to those that precede them. Each hobbit rides a pony. Each set will be alone in the Old Forest until it finishes getting out the other side, or out of the Downs - or is finished. Two sets will be started during the morning, two in the evening, and one in midafternoon.
No hobbit will have a magic ring.
In the end, of the twenty hobbits that enter the Old Forest, how many will the Wight win, and how many would wind up with Old Man Willow**?
I’m better two coppers on the Old Man Willow will capture more that 11 (a simple majority), if not more. Why? I’ll explain my reasoning later.
**Note that Tom Bombadil has been placed on retainer and so will secretly be on hand to keep any hobbit from meeting its demise. After the tests, all twenty will spend three days/two nights - all expenses paid - at the House of Tom and Goldberry, where they will be healed of mind and body, debriefed and sent back to Crickhollow, hopefully much the wiser.