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Mr. U - there is a middle ground with many of the films that you mentioned. E.T. is a great example of something which can appeal to both ends of the age demographic. I suspect that if they make the HOBBIT as a kids movie, word of mouth would get around rather quickly and they would lose much of the business that they took in for the first three Middle-earth films.
Maybe my estimate of one-half is too brutal - however, I think it would be less and no studio is going to kiss that potential revenue good-bye just to stay faithful to a perception.
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