Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.
....
Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.
I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks. 
I mean, seriously:
16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.
It can't be that easy, can it? |
Really it'll only get super easy if we get rid of the double night kills early, if that happens than yeah we have a huge advantage number wise. But as long as we lose two people per night our numbers are going to dwindle very fast. Hopefully we just get lucky with lynches or the baddies do accidentally kill each other. Could really go any way here. One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden.
And that's an interesting point Gil, the Lions and Bear are just as afraid of each other as we are of them, and at this point they are just as much a threat to each other.
(I'm not going to get any work done today, haha, this is such a distraction!)