[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by G55

Well, don't you look at the whole gestalt of a person's posts before voting, including the early handful of posts (which is actually growing quite big for a handful )? Dismissing early posts because of the "nothing really happens" argument is dismissing part of the evidence.

Of course the early banter should not be completely ignored, I was merely saying that it's not a particularly novel and genius idea to look at more than that before voting. But anyway I maintain that later Day1 posts are on average more important than the first ones which are mainly banter.

I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?). I mean he seems to later come to the conclusion that it is perhaps too complicated a scheme to realistically execute which is exactly why I thought it was an insane idea from the beginning. Also, as Boro points out, the game is so last-minute oriented that this scheme would not even help us very much.

Ok so far, I get a bit of a funny vibe about Kitanna and Lottie but I am very aware I always get a funny vibe about them on Day1 , so I'm holding my horses here. Boro is also acting a little weird, but to be fair, it could just be about being overwhelmed by ww nostalgia. G55 caught my attention, admittedly partly because she started accusing me (and THE Ka) on what I consider really shoddy grounds - but I wonder if this is just a knee-jerk reaction on my part.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.

Hear, hear! Not a problem toDay obviously, but good to keep in mind in the future.

Originally Posted by Greenie

You’re supposed to change your mind about people in light of better arguments or evidence. I’d be wary of any strategy that assumes consistency is a sign of innocence.

Ditto.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).

Yes. Even if everyone doesn't make and post a list, everyone should at least go through the player list in their head and pause to consider each fellow player for a sec. With this amount of players it's super easy for the wolves to slip under the radar by being quiet and avoiding the contrversial topics.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

"It's all going to be CHAOS, here's why we both should and shouldn't spread the vote, ignore the (presumably majority-innocent) QT, and I'm totally not going to say we should lynch a wolf because that would be wolfy (but I'm saying it anyway)".

I know that's a rather glib summary, but this post really rang alarm bells for me. I think it's the 'finding a wolf will be nearly impossible, so there's no point trying' vibe.

Ah, have you not heard of my trademark fliflopping? Seriously though, I don't consider myself flipfloppy, my brain just works on an endless "one hand, on the other hand" loop, which is both useful and frustrating to me myself. So if I'm gonna articulate my whole thought process (like I often do, because ehhh who would think through a post before writing it? not me ) it is gonna sound wishywashy. But that being said, I absolutely don't think it's impossible to find a wolf on Day1, or that it isn't worth trying. That's why I ended my paragraph there by saying that I'm still staunchly in the camp "Day1 matters".

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.

Yes, concentrating our efforts on finding the cobbler is unhelpful and it would be a potentially beneficial path for the wolves to try to keep the discussion in that. However, I don't think anyone concentrated on the cobbler too much so far. People can and should point out when someone looks like the cobbler, even if they aren't our primary target (identifying them is still helpful, especially later in the game. After all, if the lynch shapes up to be a toss between an innocent and the cobbler, the choice is clear, and also having an idea whom not to trust in the late game voting is pretty useful).

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the early Day "you're the cobbler!" posts were largely banter (certainly my accusation of Legate was at least, as you can see it was based on his in character post about refraining from breathing being a good way to stop the Black Breath).

As for "how would one spot the cobbler" - well, that's a question. Traditionally people assume the cobbler would mess around and distract the village and draw the attention and suspicion to themselves so that the wolves can slip unnoticed meanwhile, but that is certainly not the only way to play the role. The cobbler could just as well play cautiously, try to identify the wolves, and align their votes with theirs. Or something else completely. So that's certainly one more reason not to start concentrating on the cobbler instead of the wolves.