That is a good starting place, although there is much in your essay that is not foretold in that paragraph. I will look at it some more tomorrow.
The thesis is your opinion, your interpretation of the facts; that's a given. You needn't reiterate that it's your opinion. SO take out all the "perhaps'es" and replace them with a firm If-then statement, in which the "Then" has three parts. I;m thinking of something like this:
The culture of Arda begins in complexity and progresses through decline to simplicity. If we assume that the music of Middle-Earth follows the same pattern, then (first point) The Third Age represents the time at which the polyphony of the first and second age was declining into monophony;(second point) the First Age is then a decline from the music of the Ainur; and (third point) the evolution of music in our Renaissance ought to be thought of as the rediscovery of techniques and practices that were lost with the decline of Men and the departure of the Elves.
That would do for a three-pointthesis, but your essay contains omre than this thesis introduces...
More thought needed. Good night!
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...down to the water to see the elves dance and sing upon the midsummer's eve.
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