The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Werewolf CXI

Kuruharan · 10-31-2016, 09:59 AM

Welp...here goes.

KNOWN/LIKELY INNOCENT
Kuru
Legate
Lottie

UNKNOWN
Boro
Inzil
Lalaith
Lommy
Shasta

Somewhere amongst those bottom five I am convinced we have our three wolves.

Boro
I don’t know what to make of Boro. His play in this game has been noticeably odd. He has been so noticeably odd, in fact, that it tends to make me think he is innocent. I would think a wolf, even a highly distracted and busy one, would make more of an effort to appear more normal and helpful.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He is in danger of modfire if he doesn’t vote toDAY. I don’t think he should be a lynch priority.

Inzil
Inzil continues to rub me the wrong way while at the same time doing and saying some helpful things. He is, quite possibly, the most enigmatic player in the game right now. I could easily see him as a wolf but I can also easily see him as an ordo.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He might be a good lynch target…but for the time being I’d really rather not…and I will get to why in a minute.

Lalaith
DAY TWO she was still giving the impression of being helpful…without actually being helpful. While she seems ordoish my spidey-sense is going crazy about her. She always seems to me to be the sort of player whose level of seeming harmlessness and level of actual dangerousness share the exact same progression.

She got a negative strike in my book yesterDAY for suggesting we lynch McCaber because he might be modfired.

CONCLUSION: She might be a wolf. Not sure she’s the best lynch target, but she definitely might be a wolf.

Lommy
I don’t feel as good about Lommy after yesterDAY. She seems a bit too wishy-washy and trying to go with the flow for my mental comfort.

In Post 105 she says she wants more suspicions going around…which superficially seems like a good thing, except suspicions flying around is exactly the circumstance needed by wolves for them to manipulate lynches and at the time the Ward was trying to not lynch people.

In Post 138 she defends Lalaith a bit more strenuously than necessary to my mind. This post and Lalaith’s general behavior are two things that make me uncomfortable about Lalaith and consequently about Lommy. And I am also uncomfortable with her analysis of Shasta but I can’t really put much of a finger on it other than it just sounds like wolf defending wolf to me.

She’s also a bit crosswise with Inzil. And this is why I’m unsure about suggesting Inzil as a lynch target. Is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are unlikely pack mates or is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are trying to fan the public flames of rivalry too keep the heat off one or the other of them? She seems to have gone after Inzil more than Inzil has gone after her.

In this game format, is there any benefit to this sort of public wolf on wolf? I really don’t think so…but I might be wrong.

So, given that I feel worse about Lommy this makes me feel better about Inzil. But I could be totally wrong and they could be in it together.

However, I think the odds are one or the other of them has to be bad. I have a hard time believing that both of these 2 are our 2 remaining Innocents in the 5 Unknowns.

CONCLUSION: Unsure. Could well be a wolf…but might not be.

Shasta
I have a feeling that my opinions on this are going to be controversial.

On DAY ONE his first substantive post was about suppressing information.

Also on DAY ONE He defended Inzil, which could potentially be suspicious.

YesterDAY he was substantively absent.

ToDAY he starts off with a post that I think is far too pessimistic for the situation and seems designed to encourage defeatism.

Now for the controversial part…I think the attack on Nerwen points at him. Nerwen was not particularly forward in discussing plans or ideas on DAY ONE and yet she was the first person struck after the game got underway. That’s been bothering me. Why was that? Nerwen herself seemed puzzled by it.

They have a lot of familiarity with each other and if anybody would be able to smoke him out quickly if he was bad it would be her. Shasta might have feared this and persuaded his packmates that Nerwen had to be the priority to eliminate. Also, his relative absence while Nerwen was still in the game makes me uneasy about him on this point.

CONCLUSION: I might be completely off base on this one. I admit that, and am certainly open to discussion and persuasion on this, but out of all the players in the game right now, I feel worst about him.

10-31-2016, 09:59 AM	#167
Kuruharan Regal Dwarven Shade Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold Posts: 3,685	Analysis Post Welp...here goes. KNOWN/LIKELY INNOCENT Kuru Legate Lottie UNKNOWN Boro Inzil Lalaith Lommy Shasta Somewhere amongst those bottom five I am convinced we have our three wolves. Boro I don’t know what to make of Boro. His play in this game has been noticeably odd. He has been so noticeably odd, in fact, that it tends to make me think he is innocent. I would think a wolf, even a highly distracted and busy one, would make more of an effort to appear more normal and helpful. CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He is in danger of modfire if he doesn’t vote toDAY. I don’t think he should be a lynch priority. Inzil Inzil continues to rub me the wrong way while at the same time doing and saying some helpful things. He is, quite possibly, the most enigmatic player in the game right now. I could easily see him as a wolf but I can also easily see him as an ordo. CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He might be a good lynch target…but for the time being I’d really rather not…and I will get to why in a minute. Lalaith DAY TWO she was still giving the impression of being helpful…without actually being helpful. While she seems ordoish my spidey-sense is going crazy about her. She always seems to me to be the sort of player whose level of seeming harmlessness and level of actual dangerousness share the exact same progression. She got a negative strike in my book yesterDAY for suggesting we lynch McCaber because he might be modfired. CONCLUSION: She might be a wolf. Not sure she’s the best lynch target, but she definitely might be a wolf. Lommy I don’t feel as good about Lommy after yesterDAY. She seems a bit too wishy-washy and trying to go with the flow for my mental comfort. In Post 105 she says she wants more suspicions going around…which superficially seems like a good thing, except suspicions flying around is exactly the circumstance needed by wolves for them to manipulate lynches and at the time the Ward was trying to not lynch people. In Post 138 she defends Lalaith a bit more strenuously than necessary to my mind. This post and Lalaith’s general behavior are two things that make me uncomfortable about Lalaith and consequently about Lommy. And I am also uncomfortable with her analysis of Shasta but I can’t really put much of a finger on it other than it just sounds like wolf defending wolf to me. She’s also a bit crosswise with Inzil. And this is why I’m unsure about suggesting Inzil as a lynch target. Is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are unlikely pack mates or is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are trying to fan the public flames of rivalry too keep the heat off one or the other of them? She seems to have gone after Inzil more than Inzil has gone after her. In this game format, is there any benefit to this sort of public wolf on wolf? I really don’t think so…but I might be wrong. So, given that I feel worse about Lommy this makes me feel better about Inzil. But I could be totally wrong and they could be in it together. However, I think the odds are one or the other of them has to be bad. I have a hard time believing that both of these 2 are our 2 remaining Innocents in the 5 Unknowns. CONCLUSION: Unsure. Could well be a wolf…but might not be. Shasta I have a feeling that my opinions on this are going to be controversial. On DAY ONE his first substantive post was about suppressing information. Also on DAY ONE He defended Inzil, which could potentially be suspicious. YesterDAY he was substantively absent. ToDAY he starts off with a post that I think is far too pessimistic for the situation and seems designed to encourage defeatism. Now for the controversial part…I think the attack on Nerwen points at him. Nerwen was not particularly forward in discussing plans or ideas on DAY ONE and yet she was the first person struck after the game got underway. That’s been bothering me. Why was that? Nerwen herself seemed puzzled by it. They have a lot of familiarity with each other and if anybody would be able to smoke him out quickly if he was bad it would be her. Shasta might have feared this and persuaded his packmates that Nerwen had to be the priority to eliminate. Also, his relative absence while Nerwen was still in the game makes me uneasy about him on this point. CONCLUSION: I might be completely off base on this one. I admit that, and am certainly open to discussion and persuasion on this, but out of all the players in the game right now, I feel worst about him. __________________ ...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no...