[Coppermirror]

Wow, we got lucky there. Good work, ranger.

I have to leave now, but I wrote up a post last Night. Looks as if I don't need to edit it in response to someone getting killed overNight after all. I'm just going to post it unabridged and head off to do Christmassy things.

Unabridged post:

What a tragedy! I'm terrified.

To think that Boro the Reindeer and [name] have been killed too. Truly, we must work harder to erase the Doom of Christmastown. I think we should beware those who haven't said their piece...but nobody seems to listen to ghosts around here.

Anyway, analysis. I wrote this up overNight, so it isn't up to date and may contain errors. I also didn't have time to finish it, so it only covers a few people, and I'll be so annoyed if one of those gets killed off overNight. Ideally I'd have looked at everyone. But for the people I have covered, I've got a few questions I'd like to have cleared up.

A pity that we lost Boro. Given our odds, it was quite likely that we'd lose an innocent yesterDay, so we can at least be happy that we lost an ordo rather than a gifted. But it really sucks, because Boro looked innocent and was being useful. He was actively participating and even suggesting new ways for people to discuss things.

I was a bit curious about people's choices for suspicion yesterDay, so I went through and counted how many posts each person made. Here's the post count from yesterDay (and a vote count, although not in order of timing):

Sally: 1 post (and no vote!)
Shasta: 10 posts (Voted Boro)
G55: 14 (Voted Legate)
Coppermirror: 14 (Voted Inzil)
Eonwe: 4 (Voted Boro)
Morsul: 6 (and no vote!)
Nerwen: 2 (and no vote!)
Inzil: 14 (Voted Boro)
Boro: 14 (Voted Sally)
McCaber: 6 (Voted Sally)
Thinlomien: 7 (Voted Inzil)
Legate: 7 (Voted Boro)

Accordingly, if we were simply going by voting for the most visible players, the biggest targets should have been...G55, me, Inzil, and Boro-innocent. All of whom came under a decent quantity of suspicion yesterDay, for one reason or another, and Boro who got voted off. I think we've messed up Day 1 rather badly in this regard. On the other hand, what were we supposed to do – suspect people who hadn't posted yet much? McCaber and Boro-innocent both ended up voting for Sally. They were both criticised for doing so, and I can see why. But, maybe they were right to take that tactic.

Three people haven't even voted. All of those people were among those who didn't post much, so there's little to go on there. Morsul mentioned in the admin post that RL things would cause problems for his participation, so I'll give him a free pass on that (although since he's also not going to be around much toDay, heaven help us if he's a wolf). Nerwen and Sally, though...

Given that three people didn't vote and that many people didn't post much at all, toDay I will be very wary of the possibility that all of the wolves could be among the non-voting and not-posting-much people. 5 people posted a decent amount, and 4 of those survived. 7 people remain who didn't post nearly as much.

Inzil

Inzil's voting yesterDay was probably, as he said, to save himself. At the time he voted, three people were tied on 2 votes: Inzil, Sally, and Boro. He said that this was because nobody was going for his top suspect – but he never said who his top suspect was. From what I can tell, his suspects late in the Day were G55, me, and Legate. (That's interesting, incidentally, as Boro-innocent listed those three as people he thought were up to some sort of scheme together.)

Inzil started to suspect me at the point when I said I was voting for him, thinking it was a bandwagon. The reason Inzil appeared to suspect G55 was because she was wanting to pick over the are-they-coded posts in the open. For Legate, the reasoning is as quoted below. None of these seem totally unreasonable reasons, given the low amount of serious discussion yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can respect that, though it still looks opportunistic, much more so than Lommy's.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Legate does seem a littleoff, as in a little more detached and rushed-feeling, and I disagree with his suspicion of Boro. Still, I don't know that's enough grounds for a vote at this point.

Inzil, who is the person you suspected the most yesterDay?

I'm not sure whether I still suspect Inzil. Going through his later posts in more detail and at my leisure, there's actually nothing in particular there which stands out as suspicious. Hmm. Okay, no. I'll revise my opinion: I don't find Inzil nearly as suspicious toDay as I did yesterDay when I voted. If I was voting right now, I wouldn't vote for him (I'd probably vote for McCaber or even a submarine). But this isn't the same as thinking that he's innocent. Though seeing Inzil's reaction was helpful, I do regret that he had to vote for someone else to save himself from a three way tie, since if he is a wolf that would have been great cover for his voting choice.

McCaber

Originally Posted by McCaber

Right now I'm probably going to vote sally, but I'm willing to give her another hour or so to show up. Silence is most assuredly not golden here, but will just get you a lump of coal in your stocking.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Honestly, he [Eonwe] was so quiet I'd forgotten he existed. But seeing as he's contributed since then, he has deferred my wrath toDay.

I've given her an hour, and still nothing.
++sally
Let that be a warning to those who would remain silent.

Something that jumps out at me is that McCaber Tim has been very quiet for someone who decided to vote for someone based on a lack of posting and contributions. McCaber, why didn't you offer any analysis towards the end of the Day? You suggested “Maybe we should look for someone saying "I'm the Cobbler wolves please don't kill me" but you offered very little of substance at all, aside from that, and in fact most of your posts were about how you were going to vote for somebody quiet. I find it suspicious.

And anyone else – is this McCaber's usual playing style?


Sally – nothing to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted once.

Nerwen – hardly anything to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted twice.

Morsul – very little to go on. Didn't vote, and posted 6 times, mostly without substance at the bantering end of the game.

Legate:

Initially, Legate wanted us to look for Cobblers and people trying to respond to them. He didn't have a huge range of suspicions, but did suspect Boro.

Legate's suspicion of Boro-innocent's behaviour was hard to follow, and he ended up voting for Boro-innocent based on that. The vote was the first vote of the Day. If his suspicions were genuine, thinking that Boro was not acting like himself and being “really strangely noncommited at first and somewhat shifty now “ would be sufficient grounds for a vote. But I can't quite understand why Boro seemed shifty to Legate.

Legate, could you explain it a bit more, as concisely as possible?

On gut feelings yesterDay, I had considered Legate suspicious, but now I'm not so sure. But I would like to know more about the suspicion of Boro, even though Boro said that Legate's in the habit of voting for him.

In response to some things yesterDay which I didn't have time to comment on then:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I can understand that those were the two you found most suspicious, but it seemed to me that you had decided "Okay, these are the two I'm going to decide between" and basically left everyone else alone. I didn't really see a reason to have narrowed the field to two people so early.

Oh, okay, I see your reasoning now. But I think you were being too hasty in that line of thought. My vote was placed when the deadline was an hour and a half away. I don't consider that an early vote at all. I did mention about half an hour before I placed my vote that I intended to vote for Inzil, and that gave him a chance to respond. Placing a vote at that time also allowed me to watch and see how people would react, since I ended up being able to stay around to watch until the deadline. I mentioned this before, but I don't like it when all the meat of a Day's discussion is limited to the last few minutes, especially a Day 1.

If I have time later I'll look at yesterDay's posts for Shasta, G55, Eonwe and Thinlomien too, although by the time I get around to it it's likely that we'll have a bunch of new things to analyse. I'm too busy toDay for much.

I should note that I do find it suspicious when people show up close to the end without seeming to try contributing beforehand. Going by that on its own, Eonwe looks the worst.

I don't want to lead everyone off on a wild goose chase, but I'm still really confused about what Boromir was talking about yesterDay when he thought that there was something going on between me, G55 and Legate. Unfortunately he's not here to answer. I thought that maybe he was the cobbler when he posted that, but since he's a proven ordo now, his suspicion must have been genuine. And I have no idea what it could have been based on, which is annoying. Does anybody else have a guess?

Happy Christmas Eve to you all. We must not forget our Christmas cheer, even in these tragic times.