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Whoa, so they took Nerwen. I'm really surprised. They must have thought she was the Seer. I thought she was a possible Seer too, but evidently not. I was sure that they would go for me or for Galadriel55, unless they thought they could get the Seer.
I wrote up a post earlier. I'll just copy-paste it here with some alterations based on Nerwen's death, and then leave to watch some more of the Olympics. Er, I mean the village hop-scotch championships.
Post I wrote up overnight:
We got a Fenris! Take that, Saruman. (And I am very happy that my first WW vote ever was for a wolf.) My minimum goal for the game has been met: for us to nab a wolf in the first two days and thus not lose in such a short space of time. I don't even mind much if I get eaten, from this point on; I'm already satisfied with this game. Of course, I'll still be working to help us get rid of the other two wolves, but I'm going to relax and enjoy it more. We've now got a fighting chance of victory.
I'm glad that Pitchwife didn't show up yesterDAY, because it meant that Nessa decided to vote for him. I was planning to vote for Nessa anyway, but out of a last minute "I have to vote for somebody and don't want to get on the Kitanna bandwagon or waste my vote!" worry rather than any actual suspicion. But her voting for Pitchwife seemed suspicious and gave me a real reason to vote for her, and also made Galadriel55 suspicious enough to vote. It's great that she really was a wolf.
I'm going to assume from now on that Galadriel55 is innocent. It's possible that she's a wolf playing a very dangerous wolf-on-wolf game having realised that Nessa was looking suspicious and hoping there would be more Kitanna votes, but I don't think that would be a sensible course of action for her. Too risky. So in the absence of further information, Galadriel55 is the closest thing to an innocent in my eyes.
We've got a great amount of information to work on from the first DAY. Quite a few people now look suspicious to me.
Chart of suspicion
Wolf: Nessa (deceased)
Very suspicious: Inziladum
Suspicious: Eomer, Sally
Unknown: Shasta, Pitchwife, Kitanna
Almost certainly innocent: Galadriel55
Innocent: Coppermirror, Nerwen (deceased)
I'll be back later with reasons for the above, though after that I may change my mind and revise my list. And at some point I'll do an analysis of possible wolf packs.
Eomer, you said that you didn't like either of the two votes for Nessa. Why's that? Also, why did you vote for Sally?
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