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I think the slice of luck he was afforded came about when the mob decided not to adopt my strategy -- or, for that matter, any strategy -- and to instead hang me on the "evidence" that I had developed a strategy...
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But you must realize that no one but a werewolf can have a truly solid strategy on day one since only the werewolves know who is innocent and who is not. Day one is a complete shot in the dark, and everyone knows it, so if you seem to know what you are doing on day one people are going to suspect you. Sorry, lad, but that's just the way it is. Maybe they'll listen to you next time (of course, you might be a wolf next time).
Plus, you should have picked a different target. Sure, I'm disliked by some and you might get their votes, but there were also a couple of villagers that I am friendly with and they were not too anxious to get rid of me. You should've gone after BW. People would've piled on him, I bet.
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it was my bad luck that I accused a werewolf, as that meant I immediately brought down three wolves on my neck, which meant they only needed to fool...er...sway three villagers to their 'cause'.
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Ah, but four of the first five "kill Fordy" votes came from villagers. We wolves did not even lead the counter charge- we let the villagers do it.
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I think the truth is that the best course of action will always to be lynch Fea instantly. She is the Werewolves' greatest asset even if she doesn't happen to be a werewolf herself....... 
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Ha ha ha!
By the way, I've finished my review of this game. You can read it on the
Random Thoughts page of my website. I included excerpts from pms sent to Spawn and Nim during our nightly planning sessions, as well as a couple of my pms to Saucy declaring our target for the night. Enjoy...