The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WW: XCVIII ~ Game Thread ~ Death at the Foot of Taniquetil

Coppermirror · 10-18-2012, 04:58 PM

YesterDay was a shambles, with so few posts. We don't have a lot to go on from that. At least with there being no Night kill this time, there's a little less time pressure.

Day 1 - Innocent lynched. Village 7, Wolves 3.
Night 2 - No death. Village 7, Wolves 3.

The worst case scenario from this point on is:

Day 2 - Innocent lynched. Village 6, wolves 3.
Night 3 - Innocent killed. Village 5, wolves 3.
Day 3 - Innocent lynched. Village 4, wolves 3.
Night 4 - Innocent killed. Village 3, wolves 3. Village loses, wolves win.

...Actually, I see I'm wrong. This doesn't give us less time pressure. If there had been a Night kill, we'd simply have lost at the end of Day 3. rather than on Night 4. We have to catch a wolf toDay or tomorrow. There's also a chance that the wolves will kill one of their own, but that chance reduces as time goes on, and judging by the lack of a Night kill, it's reasonably likely that two of them are in contact. Or it could be as Nogrod suggested: maybe at least one wolf is in among the people who didn't show and are at risk of being mod-fired. Statistically there are good odds that at least one of those at risk of mod-fire is a wolf.

People who didn't post yesterDay, even if you won't have time for a proper post until later in the Day, if you see this thread, could you make a quick post early on, if possible? That way we'll know whether you're still at risk of mod-fire. And players who didn't vote, could you tell us whether you're going to be able to vote toDay?

Risk of mod-fire
Those who didn't post: A Little Green, Sally, Skip Spence.
Those who didn't vote: Pom, Nerwen.

If some players really are going to get mod-fired, I'm not sure what the best plan is for toDay. There are too many variables here, not knowing who's going to show up. I'd like to be able to work out the odds of whether Nog's suggestion of possibly lynching Skip Spence would be to our advantage.

So yes, players at risk of mod-fire, please post to this thread ASAP, even if it's just to say "I'll be back later to vote". Nog, you said you'd spoken to A little Green, right? Did she say anything about whether she would be able to play toDay?

10-18-2012, 04:58 PM	#32
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	YesterDay was a shambles, with so few posts. We don't have a lot to go on from that. At least with there being no Night kill this time, there's a little less time pressure. Day 1 - Innocent lynched. Village 7, Wolves 3. Night 2 - No death. Village 7, Wolves 3. The worst case scenario from this point on is: Day 2 - Innocent lynched. Village 6, wolves 3. Night 3 - Innocent killed. Village 5, wolves 3. Day 3 - Innocent lynched. Village 4, wolves 3. Night 4 - Innocent killed. Village 3, wolves 3. Village loses, wolves win. ...Actually, I see I'm wrong. This doesn't give us less time pressure. If there had been a Night kill, we'd simply have lost at the end of Day 3. rather than on Night 4. We have to catch a wolf toDay or tomorrow. There's also a chance that the wolves will kill one of their own, but that chance reduces as time goes on, and judging by the lack of a Night kill, it's reasonably likely that two of them are in contact. Or it could be as Nogrod suggested: maybe at least one wolf is in among the people who didn't show and are at risk of being mod-fired. Statistically there are good odds that at least one of those at risk of mod-fire is a wolf. People who didn't post yesterDay, even if you won't have time for a proper post until later in the Day, if you see this thread, could you make a quick post early on, if possible? That way we'll know whether you're still at risk of mod-fire. And players who didn't vote, could you tell us whether you're going to be able to vote toDay? Risk of mod-fire Those who didn't post: A Little Green, Sally, Skip Spence. Those who didn't vote: Pom, Nerwen. If some players really are going to get mod-fired, I'm not sure what the best plan is for toDay. There are too many variables here, not knowing who's going to show up. I'd like to be able to work out the odds of whether Nog's suggestion of possibly lynching Skip Spence would be to our advantage. So yes, players at risk of mod-fire, please post to this thread ASAP, even if it's just to say "I'll be back later to vote". Nog, you said you'd spoken to A little Green, right? Did she say anything about whether she would be able to play toDay?