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Sounds like that much erosion would take a LONG time. Longer than from when Maedhros jumped in the fire to when the Lonely Mountain would have become a volcano and spewed up the Silmaril. Just how long would it be between those two events anyway, theoretically?
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The time between the end of the First Age and the finding of the Arkenstone could not have been less than 5033 years (since the Kingdom-under-the-Mountain was founded in TA 1999). Volcanos have grown, erupted, and decayed in much less time than that. I remember (but don't have sources) learning about a volcano in Mexico that started in a corn field, erupted, and grew to some great height in about 50 years. Erebor going from active to extinct in 5000 isn't that dificult to concieve....but who says that the Silmaril was cast into Erebor itself? It might have floated around underground for a while, until it hit a vent and was spewed forth....