[Nogrod]

The quarterfinals will be really tough – and superbly hard to predict. But here’s the AKM’s shortish take on them.


Valimar vs. AC Beleriand

Some Valimar players had publicly hoped to meet Angband in the quarterfinal to “kick Morgoth out of the tournament” but there was probably another reason as well for their desire, and that is the fact that AC Beleriand looks clearly the more dangerous team of the two – and Fëanor sure is a thorn on the leading Valar’s side as much as Morgoth is – but in a way more annoying to them.

The stats seem to favour AC Beleriand – and one can’t say Valimar would have had a harder tournament before this game. Actually one might claim the opposite: that AC Beleriand has made their superior stats in slightly tougher matches than Valinor.

So the AKM thinks AC Beleriand to be the favourites to win the game, even if the margin isn’t that great and many things will affect the outcome beside what the games already played can tell – like the possibility Manwë will step up their game just because it’s the “Fëanor clan” they’re opposing. And you can never underestimate Arien, if she’s on fire – if you forgive the bad pun.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 2-1


Real Valinor vs. FC Valinor

Some analysts and fans alike think the game between the two Valinors is the moral championship-game – that had the grouping been different these two teams would have only met in the final, implying that they would both have been able to beat any other team on their way to the final. Now that view sure is backed by a host of facts and can’t be discredited lightly – but the AKM thinks it still is a bit premature stance. There are other teams that could pick the cup this year besides the two, especially AC Beleriand and Valimar (the upper side of the bracket that is) with maybe Hitlum or T-I-G as wild cards.

Everyone is probably familiar with the late history of the two teams but it might be worth recapitulating once more. So last year FC Valinor plainly crushed Real Valinor two times (once in friendlies, another time in the group stage) but Real Valinor were the champions in the end as Erebor kicked FC Valinor out from the competition in a penalty shoot-out in the quarterfinals. This season the teams met in the friendlies and played a draw. As it is now their stats are pretty much alike, but Real Valinor has had a tougher schedule than FC Valinor has.

So with the mutual draw behind the teams this season and Real Valinor having almost even stats from a lot tougher schedule, the AKM holds Real Valinor the favourites to win the game. But that said, there will be so much more than just stats to decide this game – the history, the personalities, the playing-styles…

The AKM predicts: the game ends in a draw 2-2, either team may make it to the semifinals but the AKM belives Tulkas will beat Huan in the penalty shoot-out.


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Eriador vs. Hithlum

So it is a game between a defending-machine vs. an attacking powerhouse. Many – including the AKM – have not been convinced on Eriador’s form this year. Compared to other teams through the last eight they clearly score a lot less than others while their defence isn’t that superb in comparison to other teams as to compensate it. Actually some teams defend better than Eriador… Then again Hithlum’s defences are the worst of the final eight – with seven goals allowed they have given in almost 50% more goals any other team has.

Now Eriador’s problem is taking advantage of Hithlum’s weak spot in their defence while keeping Hithlum’s hurricane for an attack at bay – while Hithlum’s challenge is to show they can open also tough defences while not letting the opponent to take advantage of their own uncomfortable areas of game.

The AKM thinks that Eriador is not able to stop Hithlum from scoring – even if Elrond will stand brave at his goal – and that their scoring skills are just that notch worse they would need to come even, not to talk of prevailing.

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 3-1 (or 2-0)



Tol-In-Gaurhoth vs. Armenelos

The Werewolves and Wights have been on fire this year after a few seasons of less impressive performances and at this point it is clear no team affords to take them lightly but as serious candidates to go far in this tournament. Now were they placed in the upper bracket of the tournament the AKM wouldn’t bet a lot on their survival into the finals, but located in the lower one they actually have a chance to get it even to the final – and the question is just on stamina and continuity: T-I-G sure could challenge any of the teams left on a good day, but being on the upper bracket would require them to win the best teams in a row. On the lower bracket, Gondolin and Armenlos are both quality teams, but not comparable to those on the upper bracket – and even Hithlum is kind of an “on-off” –team which can either perfotm brilliantly or just fall down, as Real Valinor so clearly showed.

That said the stats predict quite a tough and even game.

Tar Atanamir and ShastaWolf have the exact same saving percentage (83,3%) but Tar Atanamir has been tested twice as much as Shasta so there’s an edge for Armenelos as keeping that high quality tending for more shots speaks well of Tar Atanamir.

Both teams score with almost the same percentages but the T-I-G shoots more – and the T-I-G also let’s the opponent shoot less - so an edge from there to the T-I-G.

To be honest, the T-I-G hasn’t exactly met any offencive powerhouses thus far but some rather pathetic attacks (like Imladris or Anfaughlith) – but neither has Armenelos convinced anyone that they wolud be back in their former glory.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 2-1 (or a draw 1-1 and then anything’s possible)