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Old 05-13-2006, 02:59 PM   #181
Celuien
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Join Date: May 2005
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Limited to Loki, Nogrod and Lommy, as analysis seemed urgent for them.

Loki: 8: Implies that he was chosen and transformed by both the good and evil wizards. An “I told you so” about rules.

12: Irritable comments to Nogrod about cafes, rules, silly games and dinner.

23: More irritability. Says he will get insufferable and retaliatory. Says that he has insight, evidence for not being a wolf, and that being new does little to condemn him.

Impression: Irritability irritates me. I still don’t think that he was the one transformed and retransformed, though I am puzzled as to why he would lie. That is where my theory of his being deliberately confusing comes from. But, to play the opposite viewpoint, it is possible that he was chosen by the EW because he was a newcomer. It is less likely, however, that the GW would have chosen a controversial unknown to become a gifted. For that reason, I will continue to disbelieve his claim for the present, and file it under possibilities for later consideration. I’ve already explained why I’m unlikely to vote for him today. I will be watching him.

Nogrod: 9: Questions Loki for grumbling about wolves before poor Elempi’s death was discovered (read: posting before day officially started) and for his statements about scrying.

20: More with Loki regarding manners and the “I told so you” remark. 24 is more of the same.

99: Agrees with Phantom, says prominent players are risky EW picks early, but assets later, is scared those who haven’t posted or haven’t post significantly.

122: Asks Lommy if her wolvishness is so hard to bear.

160: Frustration at being at the top of suspicion for so many. Points out non-posters. Seems troubled by Morm, Loki and Nilp. Says Valier and Kath are being careful. Vote tally.

162: Vote tally.

163: Suggests looking at Lommy and Eomer for their eagerness to vote for him.

Impression: I don’t find any reason to suspect him, really, and it seems like most of the votes for him are based on the idea that he might be a good EW pick rather than what he’s done…

Lommy: 67: Reminder that the wizards choose their allies, lists Roa, Gurthang, Diamond, Nogrod, Kath, Lhuna, Kitanna, Caílin and Lalaith as potential EW selections. Wants to find the EW, but suggests not focusing all efforts on that endeavor. Says wolves will be hard to find because they don’t know each other.

75: Says not to vote preventively to eliminate likely EW picks, says we should look at actions instead – wizard strategy is hard to predict and we might be misled by attempts to figure it out.

82: Response to Fea, where she says she doesn’t discard looking for the EW, but prefers looking at people’s actions. Fears the EW is laughing at village confusion, wonders who wouldn’t be nervous in this game.

91: Says to Glirdan that it’s dangerous to go by personalities and that werewolf is always dangerous, sticks by earlier comments, asks Fea if she’s has any EW theories.

102: Says phantom and Nogrod make sense, but that they aren’t excused from suspicion.

112: Doesn’t like non-voters. Thinks Oddwen is suspicious.

121: Thinks Nogrod is overheated about time zone confusion (omitted from above analysis as not relevant to wolf identification).

125: Wonders where Sleepy and Roa are.

129: Thinks Lhuna, Loki and Alcarillo look suspicious. Is beginning to be concerned about her daddy and momma.

131: Doesn’t recommend voting for someone because s/he already has a vote. Still advocates Loki, Oddwen, Lhuna or Alca.

136: Wants to hear more from Loki.

140: Now wants to watch Nogrod based on points from Naria.

148: Agrees with Eomer that Nogrod would be a good first scry for the EW.

153: Says Nogrod isn’t himself.

158: Votes Nogrod, saying Lhuna makes sense and there isn’t enough against Alca. (What happened to suspicion of Loki/Oddwen???) Hopes we won’t lynch SPM.

161: Says it’s normal for Valier and Kath to be careful.

Impression: Well, I agree that SPM should not be lynched. Shame on you, sister Jenny! Some of what she says makes sense, but her sudden switch to voting for Nogrod is sending off red flags when she still had at least two other suspects that she seemed to have more doubts about than him. She would also be a good EW pick as someon who is clever, but seeming able to hide from suspicion.

And I’m afraid that’s all I can fit in before running out of time.

++ LOMMY

For reasons cited above.

EDIT: crossed with a lot of people.
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People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.
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