View Single Post
Old 07-12-2005, 07:59 AM   #6
the guy who be short
Shadowed Prince
 
the guy who be short's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
the guy who be short has just left Hobbiton.
TGWBS proposes a plan

Poor Fea. Anywho, I have a plan to avenge her.

The Seer should come out and openly declare themself. They can tell us who they dreamt of, whether innocent or guilty. At Night, the Ranger should protect them. The Shirriffs - er, Sherriffs - should also declare themselves.

Reasoning:
Right now, we stand a chance of killing the Seer. That chance is 1 in 12. Tonight, if that doesn't happen, the wolves have a 1 in 8 chance. Next night, they have a 1 in 6 chance, but unless the Seer is extremely subtle (and therefore of little use) they will probably guess who it is by then.

With the plan above, the Seer has no chance of dying until the Ranger is dead.

The Ranger must remain anonymous; the plan revolves around them. If the villagers are about to lynch the Ranger, the Ranger should declare themselves openly. Remaining villagers should then deflect their votes elsewhere. The Ranger will be killed that Night, the Seer the next, but doing this gives the Seer one more Night to Dream.

Now, if the Seer and both Shirriffs openly declare themselves, we have three known innocents. This is enough to rival the wolves. What this means, effectively, is that the pool in which the wolves can hide is smaller - 3 in 9 rather than 3 in 12.

Each Night, the Wolves have to decide - do they kill a known innocent or try to go after the Ranger? By leaving known innocents alive, they are concentrating themselves and helping the villagers. But by killing known innocents, they cannot kill the Ranger (and then the Seer) making them more vulnerable! They will be faced with a very difficult scenario.

Each morning, the Seer should declare who they dreamt of and their status. If they dreamt of an innocent, this adds to the ranks of known innocents, concentratingthe wolves. If they dreamt of a wolf, wonderful, we all kill it.

If the Seer dreams of the Hunter, they should merely say they are innocent. This means the wolves might kill the Hunter, thus (probably) damaging their side.

If the Seer dreams of a Ranger, I don't know what they should do yet, but it's best not name them. Do let us know that the Ranger has been dreamt of though - this means the Ranger knows the Seer will try to avoid them being lynched, so they might not need to come into the open.

Mytho, I'd ask you to become a Seer. You would only operate for one Night before dying, but at least that dream can be shared.


That's it. We can debate the plan, but I assure you it is flawless. In the worst case scenario, the Seer will die two Nights from now, having shared two dreams. In the best, we use it to win.

As I've said, we can debate it, but the plan rests in the hands of the Seer. If they like it, they will declare themselves and the plan must be followed. If no Seer emerges, it cannot be put into action. For all our sakes, I hope the Seer does declare themself.

End.
the guy who be short is offline   Reply With Quote