What if:
Bilbo had completely missed Gandalf's note on the mantelpiece until the following day?
Hmmmm.
Bilbo misses out on the adventure there and back again. The 13 dwarves get killed by giant spiders in Mirkwood. Smaug survives and the Dwarven City Under the Mountain is never rebuilt. The goblins and orcs of the northern Misty Mountains are not depleted in the Battle of the Five Armies, which doesn't take place. Wilderland stays wild.
The Nine Riders become the Nine Crawlers as they seek the Ring in the dark tunnels of the Misty Mountains. But they eventually find it. Gollum chokes on a fish bone.
Rhadaghast the Brown plays an important role in the rearguard action as the forces of the Dark Lord sweep across Middle-Earth. Gandalf is slain by the Lord of the Nazgul in an impressive air battle, with Gandalf riding the King of the Eagles and the Nazgul Lord astride his pterodactyl.
Bilbo Baggins -- old, fat, and immensely boring -- answers the knock at his door to find himself gutted on the spear of an Uruk-hai: one of the shock troops leading the two-pronged -- and ultimately successful -- assault on Rivendell and the Grey Havens.
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