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Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant
Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.
"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117
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I agree with his assessment. Though if she is a wolf, his excuse of her no vote would have made him a safer target for her. I'll move her to the bottom of the list of candidates who might well be the original two wolves, but will remain wary of her.
I most likely will not vote for Alcarillo. I'm thinking that it would have brought a lot of attention to him to have killed SPM. But again, I'm still wary of a bluff, so while I'll pass for today, he is staying high on my list of those who I'll be keeping a close eye on. He currently ranks just above Oddwen in my mind.
Lommy seems less suspicious today. She's making more sense, and I rather like her flowchart.
And I still trust my father Morm. Likewise about the phantom, spawn, and Eomer. Nogrod speaks sensibly, so I would, again, be disinclined to vote for him.
Nilp is more difficult to get a handle on, due both to personality and
time-zone disease, but because he strikes me as a very poor EW pick and because nothing is really striking me as furry, I don't think think he's cursed.
Sleepy, Valier, Roa and Kitanna I can't tell much about yet because they fall into the quiet category.
The only thing I have against Lhuna is her call for the GW to declare from yesterday. That issue has been discussed by me and by others, so I won't go into the reasons I think that's a bad idea right now. And again, she seems to be a riskier EW pick, so she doesn't take a prominent place on my list of suspects. I think she does, however, bear some observation. Similar reasoning applies to Fea.
The Lady Battledore doesn't seem wolvish. Too likely to get herself lynched the way she goes around swatting everyone with her handywork.
Which leaves me with a large contingent of intermediately chatty villagers whom I just don't know about one way or the other (read - everyone whose name isn't mentioned above or on SPM's list, which I'll get to in a minute).
So back to Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa and Gurthang.
Oddwen I've already discussed. Gurthang has been relatively quiet, which makes me uneasy, but what he has said doesn't strike me as wolvish. Besides, he agrees with the phantom about the wizards, which seems to be a good thing.
Caran has been on the right side of the GW revealing debate (
) and generally making sense. While she could be a wolf using sensible behavior as cover, I'm inclined to trust her for now. Roa defended Loki yesterday, and turned out to be right. She suspected those who were eager to see him gone and voted for Nogrod on that basis. My lorebooks say that her ancestors have been sensible and intelligent, and very effective at hiding as wolves until cornering made them defensive. I can't tell, however, if she suspicious or not just now. As for Lalaith, she had a very interesting interpretation in post #176 about the EW making
cannon fodder wolves for the purpose of revealing them to earn village trust, then voted for Loki. It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.
Hmm. And that didn't get me very far in my reasoning, did it? If the EW did pick from among those 5, it was a wise choice, because they are quite effective at deflecting suspicion.
I now have both good news and bad news. The good news is that the morning Cupper's convention was canceled, which allowed me to remain with my excellent and admirable fellow villagers these last few hours. The bad news is that afternoon sessions are still scheduled, and I don't know how far into the evening they are going to last, so my vote will need to come soon lest I risk returning the the village too late.
Expect the vote in the next couple of hours.