[ainur]

Realistically: For Best Picture--Very Possible. They will likely award here for all three films. The Academy seems to love this kind of thing.<P>Best Director: Possible, but less likely. They might vote because of the commitment that it took to bring this story to the screen, but at the same time, "Return of the King" was weaker than "The Fellowship of the Ring" as a film, and they all know it. It might work against P. J.<P>Best Actor: Sorry, but I don't think that anyone stands out enough to win.<P>Best Supporting Actor: Sean Astin should win (deserves to win), but his lineage might work against him here. The Academy is mostly actors, and tend to resent inheritance of talent or familiarity with producers. Sean had an "in" to start his career because his parents were so famous, he grew up with people of power in Hollywood. This is not an advantage as most members of The Academy did not. His performance is powerful enough that he might over-ride this handicap though.<P>Best Actress: Who? Liv Tyler? Please.<P>Best Supporting Actress: I would vote for Miranda Otto in a heartbeat, but I don't think anyone in The Academy will. She was both beautiful and as tough as a noblewoman in dark times would need to be. Plus, she's fresh to them. They like that in female performers. That's her best chance, though. Probably not enough.<P>Best Adapted Screenplay: Not a chance. It completely diverged from the flavor of the book. Almost as badly as TTT, especially the characterization of Gandalf. Academy Fans of Tolkien will vote against it for that reason alone (not to mention the omission of Saruman's demise). It probably won't even get a nomination. It shouldn't.<P>Art Direction: A definite win, I think. The next best would be "The Last Samurai" and I don't think enough people in The Academy have seen it. No doubt they have video copies, but will they take the time to watch them? They have never seemed to in the past. They seem to vote their gut feelings here. This will work for the advantage of "The Return of the King." They already know what it looks like from the other films. And that it's brilliant and beautiful.<P>Soundtrack: Maybe. They're fickle.<P>Best Song: Probably not. It's hard to say. See above.<P>Gollum should win something, but I dont know what. There is no category for this kind of innovation. I think it will go the way of the Apes in "Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan." Incredible, but there's no where to put them. At least the MTV awards had the right idea here. They just make up categories for stuff they like and want to recognize.<P>It will probably win many technical awards, as the other films have done in the past. It's an amazing achievment.