[the phantom]

MESPN Take on Off-season Losses and Acquisitions
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

Everyone's heard that they shouldn't second-guess themselves, or that their first instinct is often correct. Well, after seeing the official rosters, this is the first reaction our football panel had to each squad and whether or not they improved from last season. (Note: Below each squad next to the dollar signs is how this year's payroll compares to last year.)

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Anduin (94)
GK Amroth (5)
DF Grimbeorn (9)
DF Lenwe (3)
DF Felarof (5)
DF Fram (10)
MF Minalcar (6)
MF Isildur (10)
MF Boromir II (11)
MF Haldir (9)
MF *Eorl (14)
FW Beorn (12)

$$: +11
Verdict: They are obviously serious about taking a step forward this year with a double-digit increase to salary. They were disappointed to lose Celeborn, but gaining both Beorn and Isildur makes their overall change an advantage. They’re hoping the slight position shuffles will pay off as well (Grimbeorn to the rear, Haldir-Boro swap). Anduin looks better this year, but the position swaps will have to pay off to be 11 million better.

Angband (94)
GK *Ungoliant (16)
DF Ulwarth (3)
DF Balrog#1 (12)
DF Umuiyan (5)
DF *Morgoth (20)
MF Uldor (3)
MF Ulfast (3)
MF Ulfang (4)
MF Oikeroi (6)
FW Telvildo (8)
FW *Ancalagon (14)

$$: +3
Verdict: Very little change here—just putting Ungoliant in place of the departed Carcharoth and swapping the Balrog and Umuiyan. Given Ungoliant’s eight sticky limbs she’s probably a slight upgrade over the temperamental Carcharoth, though the wolf was capable of heroics when switched on. Our favorite change is the swap, as the Balrog makes a better centre-back while Umuiyan ought to do well farther forward and outside. It looks like the already good squad took a step forward, and for only a 3 million increase.

Anfauglith (93)
GK Haldir (4)
DF Draugluin (9)
DF Balrog#2 (12)
DF Ecthelion (10)
DF *Balrog#3 (12)
MF Gelmir (3)
MF Gorgol (3)
MF Borlach (3)
MF Borlad (3)
FW Thuringwethil (14)
FW *Gothmog (17)

$$: +6
Verdict: They lost some quality in goal (Haldir in Ungoliant out), but their philosophy is that Haldir won’t face a ton of quality shots considering their defensive emphasis and athletes at the rear. Moving Ecthelion back and adding Draugluin definitely makes their back four among the best (some think the best), and signing Thuringwethil to play up front with Gothmog was a major victory. Overall they are better and they aren’t paying a ton extra for it.

Armenelos (92)
GK Tar Atanamir (10)
DF Tar Calmacil (6)
DF Tar Palantir (7)
DF Tar Telperien (7)
MF Tar Meneldur (7)
MF Tar Telemmaite (6)
MF Tar Miriel (6)
MF Tar Ancalimon (7)
MF *Elros (13)
FW Ar Adunakhor (10)
FW Ar Pharazon (13)

$$: -3
Verdict: The only change was very minor—Ar Gimilzor heading to Havens and Tar Meneldur coming over from The Sea. A team that lost in the quarters to the eventual champ 2-1 doesn’t need to change much obviously, but such inaction is still surprising, though perhaps they attempted a deal that didn’t finalize. They’re essentially the same squad, but for a tiny bit less money, and we suppose that’s a little step forward.

Arnor (68)
GK Arvedui (8)
DF Earendur (3)
DF Valandur (3)
DF Nazgul#5 (9)
DF Malbeth (8)
MF Malvegil (3)
MF Argeleb I (4)
MF Arassuil (6)
MF Earnur (7)
FW Araphor (7)
FW Elendil (10)

$$: 0
Verdict: Their payroll was stationary, but their roster not so. Losing the Witch King hurts, but they tried to make up for it by moving Elendil up to striker and bringing in a Nazgul to replace him on defense, and trying out Earnur in the midfield. Like their salary, they probably broke even.

Barad-Dur (88)
GK Grishnakh (6)
DF Fellbeast #1 (3)
DF Mouth (8)
DF Pallando (11)
DF Alatar (11)
MF Gothmog II (5)
MF Herumor (3)
MF Beruthiel (4)
MF Castamir (7)
MF Khamul (10)
FW *Sauron (20)

$$: +14
Verdict: Sauron’s doing great financially and he actually spent some money this year, picking up Mouth and Goth II and adding Khamul to help with the attack. It’s definitely a step forward for Barad-Dur while still managing to stay below the 90s with payroll.

AC Beleriand (106)
GK Marach (10)
DF Arroch (2)
DF Haleth (7)
DF Balrog#4 (12)
DF *Hurin (14)
MF Denethor (3)
MF Annael (5)
MF Tuor (10)
FW Angrod (11)
FW Aegnor (11)
FW **Feanor (21)

$$: -2
Verdict: After their success we knew it’d be tough to keep everyone paid as they’re close to the dreaded luxury tax (which kicks in at 110 mill). Fingolfin and Rochallor are gone from the defense but they brought in Hurin and Arroch to fill the holes. Ulrad and Imlach are gone in exchange for Annael and Haleth, while Tuor will be asked to replace Eol’s offensive production. They’ve also shifted formations, fixing Feanor more firmly in the middle and asking the twins to attack from the flanks. Just as they’ve very slightly gone down in payroll, we judge them to have taken a little step back as a squad, but still in elite company of course.

Inter Beleriand (95)
GK *Huan (15)
DF Imlach (4)
DF NilpWight (4)
DF Beren (12)
MF Hunthor (2)
MF Bor (3)
MF Baragund (3)
MF Luthien (12)
MF *Hador (13)
FW Fingon (13)
FW *Maedhros (14)

$$: +14
Verdict: They’re banking on a big year after hiking their payroll so much. They flipped the positioning of Beren and Luthien which is interesting, and they’ve added Hador for punch at the front and NilpWight and Huan to shore up the defense, and also switched to a back three. This squad definitely took a couple strides forward.

Doriath (86)
GK Dior (6)
DF Galathil (2)
DF Carcharoth (10)
DF Elwing (6)
DF *Melian (13)
MF Nellas (3)
MF Saeros (3)
MF Daeron (5)
MF *Eol (15)
FW Elwe (14)
FW Mablung (9)

$$: +16
Verdict: Another big mover here—Doriath made the biggest budget increase of the off-season. They brought in Carcharoth for his athletic prowess at the rear and signed creator Eol after his excellent run with AC last season. Getting an elite talent on both ends is a big victory for a squad and Doriath has to be pleased—and they’re still under 90 mill.

Dwarves United (89)
GK *Galadriel (14)
DF Azaghal (5)
DF Shadowfax (5)
DF Aule (16)
DF *Gandalf (14)
MF Thorin (5)
MF Narvi (6)
MF Gamil Zirak (4)
MF Telchar (4)
MF Durin (6)
FW Legolas (10)

$$: +3
Verdict: Losing Celebrimbor was huge, but they breathed a sigh of relief when they replaced him with Gandalf and Shadowfax. Getting two for one means their defense will be as sturdy as ever. What they were really looking for was help at the front though, and they didn’t manage it, thus we’ll call their offseason was a wash.

Erebor (77)
GK Brand (3)
DF Fellbeast#2 (3)
DF Meneldor (8)
DF Nazgul #3 (8)
DF Girion (8)
MF Balin (3)
MF Bain (3)
MF Dain (5)
MF Bard (8)
FW Nazgul #7 (10)
FW Smaug (18)

$$: -17
Verdict: After losing Thranduil and Gwaihir the season before, this season they’ve lost Beorn, Bolg, and Landroval. As their payroll drops their overall talent does as well, leaving their remaining stars to carry more of the load. They’ve only gone down since their semifinal run and they perhaps need a financially successful year to turn things around with new signings.

Eriador (104)
GK *Elrond (20)
DF Asfaloth (4)
DF Arantar (5)
DF Erestor (8)
DF *Celebrimbor (18)
MF Araphant (4)
MF Arveleg (6)
MF NogWight (6)
MF Gildor (7)
MF *Glorfindel (13)
FW Gil-galad (13)

$$: +1
Verdict: Gone are Aragorn, Arwen, and Isildur, but they’ve added Erestor, Gildor, and Celebrimbor to replace them, and moved Gil-galad from defense to offense. Overall it looks near a wash talent-wise but we think perhaps it’s a better fit to their other personnel and scheme now.

Gondolin (85)
GK Rog (8)
DF Penlod (6)
DF Voronwe (7)
DF Galdor (5)
MF Aranwe (3)
MF Egalmoth (6)
MF Elemmakil (4)
MF Duilin (7)
MF Idril (9)
FW Turgon (12)
FW *Maeglin (18)

$$: +1
Verdict: Bringing in Voronwe for Salgant and Turgon for Tuor isn’t major, but is perhaps a slight advantage overall (about 1 million advantage according to the payroll). A larger change is their shift to 3-5-2, but without another elite player they’re not on level with the heavies. They’re only in the 80s so they have the cap space.

Gondor (63)
GK Adrahil (5)
DF Galadil (4)
DF Hyarmendacil II (5)
DF Eldarion (5)
MF Calimehtar (5)
MF Galador (4)
MF Turambar (6)
MF Meneldil (6)
MF Romendacil (7)
MF *Anarion (11)
FW Eldacar (9)

$$: -7
Verdict: Their payroll is now 21 mill below two seasons ago, but this year at least they didn’t take a hard fall talent-wise, as they primarily traded a couple even talents and kept everything else the same. If they manage to advance out of groups they’ll make some nice cash and be set up to be aggressive with next year’s signings.

Hithlum (100)
GK Huor (10)
DF Galdor (5)
DF Rochallor (4)
DF Gundor (5)
DF Balrog#5 (13)
MF Forweg (3)
MF Aradan (4)
MF Morwen (6)
MF *Fingolfin (15)
FW Beleg (15)
FW **Turin (20)

$$: -1
Verdict: After making a huge leap forward last season Hithlum has evened out, losing Hurin, Hador, and Arroch but bringing in Fingolfin, Forweg, and Rochallor. The team looks to have taken a small step back in talent, but the other top teams are facing similar situations thus they haven’t lost ground to most.

Imladris (73)
GK Aragorn (10)
DF Roheryn (3)
DF Galdor (4)
DF Arwen (10)
DF *Celeborn (11)
MF Ohtar (2)
MF Celebrian (5)
MF Lindir (3)
MF Arahael (5)
FW Elladan (10)
FW Elrohir (10)

$$: +4
Verdict: Varda and Erestor are gone, but Celeborn, Aragorn, Arwen, and Roheryn are in to pick up the slack. Imladris looks to have widened their talent base while only adding a bit to payroll, so it’s an offseason win.

Isengard (72)
GK Theoden (7)
DF Snowmane (3)
DF Beechbone (3)
DF Meriadoc (3)
DF Radagast (11)
MF Lurtz (3)
MF Mauhur (3)
MF Ulguk (4)
MF Treebeard (10)
MF *Saruman (15)
FW Quickbeam (10)

$$: +6
Verdict: This cheapo squad has risen into the 70s now, so perhaps they are concerned with more than making a quick buck. Theoden, Snowmane, Meriadoc, and Radagast have been added at the back, while Treebeard has been planted in the midfield for the departing Wormtongue and Nazgul. Overall this looks like a step in the right direction.

Minas Tirith (68)
GK Denethor II (7)
DF Imrahil (6)
DF Ecthelion II (6)
DF Ostoher (6)
MF Herion (6)
MF Pelendur (6)
MF Earnil II (6)
MF Tarondor (6)
MF Telumehtar (6)
MF Mardil (7)
FW Boromir I (6)

$$: -8
Verdict: They lost the Eomer-Firefoot duo to their native Rohan and they took Cirion with them, so what’s left is more budget friendly but with a lower ceiling. The Tower of Guard is always solid, but to challenge the big-hitters they need to diversify and bring in some free agents. They have good financial backing so they really should have a higher payroll.

Misty Mts (80)
GK Chief Wolf (4)
DF Caradhras (7)
DF William (4)
DF Landroval (8)
DF Gwaihir (12)
MF Watcher (5)
MF Great Goblin (5)
MF Orophin (6)
MF Rumil (6)
MF Azog (8)
FW *Durin’s Bane (15)

$$: +4
Verdict: They increased budget last year and again this season, inching up to keep Gwaihir and Chief Wolf and bringing in Landroval instead of Narvi. With the Elven brothers moving up the offense should be relatively unchanged and Watcher moving into the midfield may be smart, but we question paying for a second eagle defender when their on-the-ball defense could’ve used help. We’ll see if the +4 was worth it.

Mordor (54)
GK Silent Watcher (2)
DF Fellbeast #3 (3)
DF Mumakil (2)
DF Radbug (3)
DF Shagrat (4)
MF Gorbag (3)
MF Angamaite (3)
MF Nazgul #1 (8)
MF Sangahyando (3)
MF Nazgul #2 (8)
FW Shelob (10)

$$: +3
Verdict: A bit of trading with Barad-Dur (aka Sauron’s A Team) has left them without Mouth and Goth II, adding Sangahyando and Radbug to replace them. That’s not an upgrade, and the price inflation is rather to meet the new league minimum (2 mill) and keep their twin Nazgul in the midfield. Obviously Sauron is using this team as a place-holder, and we’ll see if next year The Arda Cup Committee tries to squeeze them into the competition by raising the overall salary minimum.

Nargothrond (78)
GK Barahir (7)
DF Guillen (4)
DF Baran (3)
DF Arminas (4)
DF Beor (7)
MF Gelmir (3)
MF Andreth (4)
MF Nienor (7)
MF *Glaurung (15)
FW Gwindor (10)
FW *Finrod (14)

$$: -11
Verdict: Orodreth and Finduilas were lured away by TIG while Andreth and Gelmir are the new faces. That’s a dropoff and the payroll reflects it, but they hope a bit of reorganization (e.g. Glaurung to midfield) will yield better results. That may be, but they still can’t match the glory of their old teams unless they untie the checkbook strings and commit to defense the way they have with the attack.

Rohan (69)
GK Hama (3)
DF Firefoot (3)
DF Ghan-buri-Ghan (3)
DF Erkenbrand (3)
DF Cirion (7)
MF Aldor (6)
MF King Dead (8)
MF Eowyn (9)
MF Eomer (11)
MF Faramir (9)
FW Helm (7)

$$: +3
Verdict: Theoden is gone to Isengard, but Eomer, Ghan-buri, and others have come to fill the gap. Overall the team looks to be slightly improved, thus a match to their increase. But to equal the success of two years ago they’ll need to snag the likes of Eorl and Gandalf again.

Shire-Bree United (51)
GK Halbarad (5)
DF Fellbeast#4 (2)
DF Nazgul #4 (8)
DF Peregrin (3)
DF Beregond (5)
MF Butterbur (2)
MF Bandobras (4)
MF Golfimbul (3)
MF Ferny (2)
MF Wormtongue (5)
FW Nazgul#6 (8)

$$: -17
Verdict: A huge dive for SBUnt, becoming the lowest payroll squad in the tournament. Gandalf, Shadowfax, Gildor, Khamul, probably their best players last year—have all moved on, and that’s too much for a team like SBUnt to replace. On the plus side they’re guaranteed to finish in the black financially this year so perhaps they’ll be able to be aggressive with signings next season.

The Havens (77)
GK Amandil (6)
DF Ar Gimilzor (6)
DF Ciryandil (6)
DF Imrazor (5)
DF *Olwe (10)
MF Eriol (5)
MF Mithrellas (3)
MF Earwen (4)
MF Ar Zimrathan (8)
MF *Cirdan (10)
FW Falastur (9)

$$: -2
Verdict: Ar Gimilzor has come in to shore up the back line while Ar Zimrathan has moved up into the midfield, but overall Havens is a step back after losing the scoring of Earendil. The good news is they’re solid despite being under 80 mill, so if they can have a respectable season they can make serious strides in the offseason.

The Sea (100)
GK *Hyarmendacil I (8)
DF Salmar (9)
DF Ciryatur (5)
DF Uinen (9)
DF *Ulmo (16)
MF Earnil I (7)
MF Tar Cirytan (7)
MF Veantur (7)
MF Tar Aldarion (8)
MF Osse (9)
FW *Earendil (15)

$$: 0
Verdict: Trading Voronwe and Tar Meneldur for Ciryatur and Earnil I was smart, as the difference between them is only slight and it saved them enough money to bring in Earendil to give them some needed scoring spark. To further add to the attack they moved Osse to the front, which ought to bring better balance to the squad. Considering they added zero payroll The Sea had a nice offseason.

Tirion (94)
GK Finarfin (9)
DF Pengolodh (3)
DF Amrod (9)
DF Amras (9)
DF *Caranthir (11)
MF Anaire (3)
MF Rumil (4)
MF Mahtan (10)
MF Ingwe (11)
FW Aredhel (12)
FW *Finwe (13)

$$: +11
Verdict: A significantly higher payroll this year for Tirion who doesn’t want to be the little brother to the Valinor powers. Adding Pengolodh at the rear and Ingwe to the midfield is a nice touch and in keeping with their playing philosophy.

Valimar (109)
GK *Manwe (15)
DF Este (8)
DF Vana (8)
DF Namo (14)
DF *Eonwe (14)
MF Elenwe (3)
MF Amarie (4)
MF Ilmare (7)
MF Vaire (8)
MF Tilion (12)
FW *Arien (16)

$$: +7
Verdict: The Valar are all-in this year with the highest payroll around, just 1 mill short of the luxury tax cap. Bringing in Tilion to support Arien on the attack is certainly a plus, and adding Eonwe to strengthen the back in front of Manwe means they’ve overall stepped up to another level. But with a payroll that high they can’t afford to be ousted early.

FC Valinor (106)
GK Orome (14)
DF Nahar (5)
DF Findis (3)
DF Maglor (11)
DF *Varda (14)
MF Elemmire (4)
MF Indis (7)
MF Argon (9)
MF *Yavanna (12)
FW Celegorm (11)
FW *Curufin (16)

$$: -1
Verdict: Losing Eonwe, Thorondor, and Huan at the rear hurts, but they’ve brought in Varda, Nahar, and Orome in order not to fall from their accustomed perch. The front four remains unchanged, thus the overall squad only took a small slip, particularly if Orome plays well between the posts.

Real Valinor (99)
GK Nienna (10)
DF Irime (3)
DF Thorondor (13)
DF Irmo (9)
DF *Tulkas (13)
MF Quennar (3)
MF Enerdhil (4)
MF Ingwion (7)
MF Nessa (11)
FW Nerdanel (12)
FW *Miriel (14)

$$: -2
Verdict: They lost Orome from the front and didn’t replace him, electing to try Miriel and Nerdanel as twin forwards. They also moved Tulkas out of goal to make up for the departed Tilion, and they brought in Irmo and Thorondor to further strengthen the defense while moving Ingwion into the midfield. They might’ve broken even for slightly less money, which would be an off-season win.

Wilderland (72)
GK Great Warg (5)
DF Finglas (3)
DF Skinbark (3)
DF Oropher (5)
DF Vorondil (7)
MF Iminye (4)
MF Fimbrethil (4)
MF Imin (5)
MF Bolg (8)
FW Thranduil (14)
FW *Scatha (14)

$$: -3
Verdict: They lost their Nazgul presence as well as Radagast and added Vorondil and Bolg, so a little step back in salary and talent. If their investors can finish ahead this season Wilderland will be in a nice position given the wide array of people/things on which to draw.

The Barrow-Downs (63)
GK Lumpkin (2)
DF River Woman (3)
DF MormWolf (6)
DF McCabWight (3)
DF Barrow-Wight (10)
MF Goldberry (3)
MF SallyWight (3)
MF Hookbill (6)
MF Argeleb II (5)
FW Bombadil (9)
FW Witch King (13)

$$: +13
Verdict: A big jump forward for BDs, adding WKing to the attack, a Werewolf and Wight to the defense, and Argeleb to the midfield. Once an afterthought, this year they have perhaps crossed the line into being a squad that can truly challenge most of the field—quite nice for a cost-effective squad.

Tol In Gaurhoth (90)
GK *ShastaWolf (11)
DF Edrahil (6)
DF KuruWight (3)
DF InzilWolf (10)
DF *BoroWolf (11)
MF GwathWight (3)
MF Finduilas (9)
MF Orodreth (11)
MF *PhantomWolf (12)
FW NerWight (4)
FW *LegateWolf (10)

$$: +6
Verdict: Thanks to being flush with cash after their title, TIG has continued the upward trend, bumping some of their returning Wolves up a couple mill (and deservedly so). Losing athletes the caliber of Thuringwethil and Draugluin hurts their chances to repeat, but they still have athletes of their own, and bringing in Orodreth, Finduilas, and Edrahil should compliment them.