[Kitanna]

Looking at Nerwen first, then Volo

I'm focusing on yesterday's posts for right now.

Nerwen
Her first post was a recap of Wilwa, didn't really give much on her own thoughts.
Her next post was a recap of Galadriel.

After her recaps she gets into what she actually thought of the Night 2 kills.

No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point. Certainly, though, her preoccupation with that role was very noteworthy yesterDay (even if it seemed to begin as IC posting). I would say that (from my list at #217), scenarios #1, #2 and #3 are all quite possible, while #4 is very unlikely, unless our Bear and Maiden are a nervous pair indeed. (Can’t comment on #5 for reasons already stated.)

Unfortunately I don’t think she left any really clear indication as to whom she actually did dream (if of a baddie, it would surely be Mac as the Bear).

This is also puzzling. As a matter of principle, the player the wolves most want to kill is always the Seer (unless they’re cubs who don’t know any better). However, she in fact said little that seemed obviously Seer-ish, leading me to point out the same thing I did last game: sometimes wolves have so little lead to the Seer early in the game that they are forced to choose the kill for other reasons entirely (yes, I was a wolf that game– but it was also quite true, as you may recall). For this reason, I think the ideas that she might have been killed as a false trail/Targaryen/general “special role” all have merit.

Again, though *if* she was killed as a “Seer” her supposed dreamed villain (if any) would be Mac or Volo (possibly Wyth if we accept Mac's idea that the Lions took her #6 joke-post as a hint).

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Seeing as Mac was a lion, from this post I don't see the lovers concluding Nerwen was also a lion and attacking her based on it.

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Her next major post is a look at Skip. Concluding with this:

Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121)

Given that Eomer had expressed doubt of both the skip and Mac wagons, I don't think it's surprising he tried to keep out of them; this strikes me as a rather forced reason for voting him.

She ended up voting for Mac, which was no real surprise. She mentioned him the most. She was also the first to vote him. I'm actually surprised the lions didn't target her.
She didn't mention anyone else as suspicious enough to be vote worthy (She made some mention of Zil, Eomer, Rikae, and me). Lommy was the only one she made any inclination toward guilt. Even then it was only "certainly eyebrow-raising", but enough for Nerwen to vote her.

The best theories I can come up with on why the lovers went after Nerwen are
1) Mac fell under suspicion D1, so maybe the lovers thought Nerwen was a lion throwing her teammate under the bus in an attempt to look good and helpful to the village.
2) The lovers have chosen an alliance and it isn't in favor of the village.

Volo
In his first D2 post he said he believed the lovers were actually trying to kill a lion.

I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo. My intuition was Lion. For the Lions, it's obviously Crow, 3idCrow (likely), Targaryen, Bear or Maiden.

He defended his Galadriel vote a few times when questioned.

Some suspect Mac to be the Bear, or the Maiden perhaps. I have had a similar suspicion since some point yesterDay, when we began the Targaryen revelation stuff. However a) I would prefer not to lynch the Bear. b) Mac has contributed a lot.
The problem with this kind of thinking is that it might give a LionMac a free pass. However, I'll give Mac the benefit of doubt for now.

Then of course his Zil vote and cryptic last statement.

Volo was talked about more than he actually talked. He was talked about because Galadriel mentioned him and Mac, thus sparking the discussion that "did the lions think she dreamed one of them?" With Mac dead maybe Volo was attacked because it would be harder to use that same logic again and get Volo lynched D3? Volo, though talked about a lot, didn't actually receive any votes.
Or maybe they read his cryptic message as a hint. Nog pointed out a GoT reference from early D1, saying

Did the lions think he made an irresponsible but fun hint about him being the bear aka. someone who changes shape and kills in the dark?

It's not a terrible theory. Though I don't know how likely it is. Maybe they thought he was ranger or hunter. That last statement was too odd to have gone unnoticed, and if Volo was alive I would be wondering myself if he wasn't playing a gifted role.