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Originally Posted by Firefoot
Guess we've got about a 25% chance of nailing a baddie today, so good luck to us...
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Indeed, and about a 21% chance of lynching a Gifted. Bleh.
Okay, so the tally is 18-3-3. Let's paint a couple of scenarios...
We lynch an innocent the first two days (not unlikely). At night the Wolves do not kill each other (not unlikely). So we would open day three at 12-3-3, meaning that we could successfully lynch a Werewolf FIVE times in a row and still be down to a final day scenario.
(these numbers represent the tally at the end of the stated period)
D3 12-3-2
N4 10-3-2
D4 10-3-1
N5 8-3-1
D5 8-2-1
N6 6-2-1
D6 6-1-1
N7 4-1-1
D7 4-1-0
N8 3-1-0
Thus on Day 8 there would be one Wolf among 4 villagers, and getting it wrong would equal a Baddie victory.
My point is, in such a case we are absolutely depending on one or more of the following things-
1) Ranger successfully protects someone (but NOT one WW from the opposing WW team, as has happened before
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2) Hunter kills a WW
3) WW team A kills WW team B
I think #3 is the most intriguing aspect of this contest. The Baddies definitely don't want to lose the double kill each night (see my chart above for how quickly it diminishes our population), BUT they can't allow the opposing pack to equal or outweigh them, so really I think the WWs will be just as interested in lynching accurately as the rest of us. Lynching the opposition is the way to go, because it buys goodwill and they don't have to waste night kills on offing the other pack- hunting for Gifteds instead.
(let's break this up, it's getting long)