The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WW XXXX

Rikae · 11-30-2007, 01:14 AM

Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error.

I have never understood why people seem to think of day one's lynching as a sort of "throw away", which can, at best, catch a wolf by chance. In my experience, wolves are caught as often by analysis as by seers, and analysis on subsequent days is not often significantly aided by knowing the wolves' choice of a kill. I think it is entirely possible to catch a wolf on day one through skill, rather than mere luck. A wolf usually does elicit suspicion on Day 1, but is saved by one of the typical diversions: someone who stands out becomes an easy scapegoat, even though he or she may not, on reflection, look particularly wolfish.
I'm just as opposed to the tired "loud/quiet" dichotomy some trot out on Day 1's. It should be clear that such a blunt instrument basically amounts to pseudo-analysis. There are so many possible nuances of playing style, and these vary from one game to the next. Each wolf blunders differently, and there is not only a continuum between the 'loudest' and 'quietest' players, but every player who posts has the entire English language at his/her disposal, and therefore, no two posts are alike. Although it takes time and effort, I vote for carefully sifting each post, using our intuition and logic to the utmost, and actually doing some serious wolf-hunting toDay. It is not only more fun, it will give us better chances of catching a wolf now and more to go on in Day 2.
That said, I should practice what I preach! So here are my thoughts:

Volo's banter is right up my alley, and I'm not going to take issue with it.

Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now.

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.

[rant]Although after the last game, quiet wolves may be at the forefront of everyone's minds, Naria was unlikely to have been caught early on anyway. Macalaure and Brinniel were neither particularly quiet nor particularly loud, and could have been tracked down sooner by careful reading!!![/rant]

The Might's second post seems newbie-ish-ly innocent to me, and makes me feel better about him.

Fea & Kuru give us banter and nothing to go on yet.

Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.

Fea gets completely out of character (or in character?) and still gives us nothing to go on. Oh well...

Brinniel speaks good hobbit sense, and Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating. Both of them go up on my innocence-scale, however, I hope to see these wise words are backed up by some solid discussion!

Menel - *sigh*. He's so often unjustly lynched on Day 1, I hate to go after him now. However, he shifts the discussion back into loud/quiet territory while suggesting he intends to do otherwise, and I can't just let that slide. Slightly suspicious.

Kath - I always slightly distrust the "just checking in" post (as with Sally above.) Not a big deal, though.

Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing.

Sally is 100% right about what constitutes wolfish quietness. However, simply continuing this debate is beginning to look nonproductive, even deliberately so.

Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish.

Morm just jokes around - nothing there - and Kuru is funny.

Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't.

At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary -- I look forward to seeing what others have to say and hope this post gets discussion moving in a constructive direction. Even if we don't get a wolf toDay, we will certainly be closer to catching one on Day 2, the more we analyse now.

EDIT: X'd with Stan.

11-30-2007, 01:14 AM	#26
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,533	Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error. I have never understood why people seem to think of day one's lynching as a sort of "throw away", which can, at best, catch a wolf by chance. In my experience, wolves are caught as often by analysis as by seers, and analysis on subsequent days is not often significantly aided by knowing the wolves' choice of a kill. I think it is entirely possible to catch a wolf on day one through skill, rather than mere luck. A wolf usually does elicit suspicion on Day 1, but is saved by one of the typical diversions: someone who stands out becomes an easy scapegoat, even though he or she may not, on reflection, look particularly wolfish. I'm just as opposed to the tired "loud/quiet" dichotomy some trot out on Day 1's. It should be clear that such a blunt instrument basically amounts to pseudo-analysis. There are so many possible nuances of playing style, and these vary from one game to the next. Each wolf blunders differently, and there is not only a continuum between the 'loudest' and 'quietest' players, but every player who posts has the entire English language at his/her disposal, and therefore, no two posts are alike. Although it takes time and effort, I vote for carefully sifting each post, using our intuition and logic to the utmost, and actually doing some serious wolf-hunting toDay. It is not only more fun, it will give us better chances of catching a wolf now and more to go on in Day 2. That said, I should practice what I preach! So here are my thoughts: Volo's banter is right up my alley, and I'm not going to take issue with it. Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far. The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now. Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring. Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate. [rant]Although after the last game, quiet wolves may be at the forefront of everyone's minds, Naria was unlikely to have been caught early on anyway. Macalaure and Brinniel were neither particularly quiet nor particularly loud, and could have been tracked down sooner by careful reading!!![/rant] The Might's second post seems newbie-ish-ly innocent to me, and makes me feel better about him. Fea & Kuru give us banter and nothing to go on yet. Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion. Fea gets completely out of character (or in character?) and still gives us nothing to go on. Oh well... Brinniel speaks good hobbit sense, and Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating. Both of them go up on my innocence-scale, however, I hope to see these wise words are backed up by some solid discussion! Menel - sigh. He's so often unjustly lynched on Day 1, I hate to go after him now. However, he shifts the discussion back into loud/quiet territory while suggesting he intends to do otherwise, and I can't just let that slide. Slightly suspicious. Kath - I always slightly distrust the "just checking in" post (as with Sally above.) Not a big deal, though. Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing. Sally is 100% right about what constitutes wolfish quietness. However, simply continuing this debate is beginning to look nonproductive, even deliberately so. Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish. Morm just jokes around - nothing there - and Kuru is funny. Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't. At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary -- I look forward to seeing what others have to say and hope this post gets discussion moving in a constructive direction. Even if we don't get a wolf toDay, we will certainly be closer to catching one on Day 2, the more we analyse now. EDIT: X'd with Stan.