[Nogrod]

Group E
Hithlum – Valimar
The Havens – The Sea

With all teams even before the last round this is the hairiest group there is. In the trickiest possible situation we might need to start counting the number of goals made. In that scenario – before the last games that is – Hithlum is having the best situation (4 goals made) and Valimar the worst (only 1 goal made); both The Havens and The Sea have made 3 goals so they are following Hithlum closely (and with Hithlum having a game against low-score –masters Valimar, the two have actually good chances to overcome them in goals scored).

One thing is clear though: any team winning the last match will qualify.

That should secure that every team will fight for a win in the last games. And it is easy to see all the teams thriving for just that, with the possible exception of Valimar which is a team it is always so hard to figure – and which fact has suddenly turned the tables making the group favourite look like the most vulnerable team at this point. Weird enough: if Valimar forces Hithlum into a 1-1 draw and The Sea and The Havens play 3-3 both elven teams qualify…

If Hithlum scores two goals against Manwë they will most probably qualify – unless Valinor scores three (which we think quite improbable). It will in the end be a game of Húrin and his children against Manwë: whichever champions ovet the other wins.

The match between the elven teams is just too tight to call. The Havens has been a little more active in shooting but a bit less effective with it’s shots. On defence The Sea has allowed clearly fewer shots towards their goal, but Cirdan has been a notch better keeper than Voronwë.

The AKM predicts: Hithlum to qualify.

The AKM bets: All other three are possibilities to qualify, but Valimar the least probable. If forced to bet on a team, the AKM would bet on *flies a coin* The Sea.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Because of the extremely uncertain outcome of this group you should be careful choosing players from these teams. You should be especially careful not to choose too many players from the elven teams unless you wish to play a “great risks and great rewards” –game.
2) Best picks from this group could be the offencive players from team Hithlum as they will most likely score at least once (possibly twice) and will most probaly continue the tournament from these teams (which is not to say they will qualify, but are the best bet for it).
3) Valimar defences are always a good choice but the AKM doesn’t encourage it this time.

Group F
Rohan – Misty Mountains
Isengard – Imladris

The first game is not a totally meaningless even if Rohan has secured the top position of the group, for Misty Mts. does have a theoretical chance to qualify. The problem for them is that it a) requires miracles from them, and b) is not totally in their own hands as it requires the hosts Isengard to beat Imladris. And to top that all, they would need to win Rohan with a better goal difference (with two goals at minimum) than Isengard would beat Imladris… You can assess yourself how probable it is that Rohan which hasn’t given in a single goal in two games would suddenly let Misty Mts. score two or more. So basically we say goodbye to team Misty Mts.

Now even if Isengard has chances to qualify, and even if there has been talk about Imladris’ problems in scoring, and even if Isengards defences and goal-keeping are actually almost as good as Imlardis’, there seems to be only one favourite for this game. Imladris might not be FC Valinor or Angband, but they still have scored three goals in two matches where Isengard has only scored one. The offencive stats thus far make this clear: Imladris scores 33,3% of their shots on goal, Isengard scores 12,5% - and they shoot about the same amount… while their goalies’s saving percentages are about the same.

The AKM predicts: Rohan and Imladris to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Rohan is a good choice especially for defencive players. They will most likely meet wilderland in the first play-off game – and even if wilderland has an effective-looking attack, Erebor managed to keep them in one goal so it might be safe.
2) Imladris is not as good an investment as they will face Erebor in the play-offs (if they get there) and their defence will be put into a real test they might fail (Elros will get you a few points anyway).
3) The AKM does suggest you to basically ignore the forwards from group F when picking your team.

Group G
AC Beleriand – Anfaughlith
Nargothrond – Doriath

In theory the group is wide open as every team has a chance to qualify. In practise it is one of the clearest groups thus far as AC Beleriand and Anfaughlith will qualify – and the only question remains which one of them needs to face Eriador in the first play-off game.

Looking at the stats the defences are more or less equal except that Ungoliant (77,8%) is a better keeper than Marach (66,7%). But in the offenciv e stats AC Beleriand just crushes Anfaughlith. So it’s easy to see AC Beleriand as favourites to win the group.

Now the chances of Nargothrond and Doriath are tied into a “partner team” above them. Nargothrond only has chances if Anfaughlith loses and Doriath ony has chances if AC Beleriand loses. But even in those cases their chances are slim as the goal differences are huge: Anfaughlith is having +1 against Nargothrond’s -4; AC Bel is having +4 against Doriath’s -1. So that should be clear.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand and Anfaughlith to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) If you don’t yet have Fëanor, Beren or Eöl in your team it would be high time to recruit one of them. And as AC Beleriand will most probably play at least two games after the group-phase, you might think of some midfield / defence options as well.
2) Anfaughlith’s defences are one of the best in the tournament (even if they showed some vulnerability against Nargothrond’s attack) and even if their most probable adversary in the play-offs is Eriador, it might be just a team they could defend well against. But the AKM wouldn’t bet on Thuringwethil now, at least looking forwards to the play-offs as Elrond is more than ready to face her.
3) If you want to hire a striker for just one game and are ready to dispose of him, the AKM suggests considering Finrod Felagund of Nargothrond, or maybe Glaurung, or Beleg of Doriath.

Group H
Gondor – Minas Tirith
Barad Dûr – Mordor

Here we face a dilemma: Gondor is through and has actually secured their pole position whatever happens in the last games. Now their last game is against Minas Tirith who have 2 points while the Mordorian teams both have only 1 point and play against each other.

It is beyond doubt that the Rohanians have entertained the question of whether they should lose intentionally to their fellows from Minas Tirith to get their kin through and leave the Mordorians into the group-stage. That would be tempting especially as a loss wouldn’t drop them from the pole position. But what they have decided on the issue is far from beyond doubt.

The AKM does actually feel Gondor might indeed lose their game. But if that doesn’t happen, then we’d say Barad Dûr stand somewhat favourites against Mordor, especially because of Sauron in front of BD –teams attack against a team formed mainly from his own minions.

The AKM predicts: Gondor to qualify, then possibly Minas Tirith (if not then Barad Dûr).

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Anarion of Gondor has been valuable player (and Eldacar to an extent as well) but with the chance of dealt loss in the air the AKM wouldn’t make him a top choice at this round. But if you believe in that theory, then Boromir, Faramir or Mardil from Minas Tirith might be good ideas.
2) Going for another route Sauron, and if he’s too expensive (in stars) then Castamor or queen Bruthiel might be picks to consider.
3) Shelob of Mordor has scored pretty well but Mordor is most probably staying in the group-phase so you’d need to trade her after this game anyway.