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Old 07-10-2012, 02:24 AM   #153
Nilpaurion Felagund
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Pipe ArdaCup.com Stats Report #11: Round of Sixteen Predictions

Right, the sportswriters are nowhere to be seen, so the editor was left with no choice but to let me, a statistician, write the report. So this won't be pretty, but considering how well we did in the last round of sixteen prediction, we're still worth reading.


A1 Angband vs H2 Minas Tirith
Minas Tirith has done well to limit the above-average offences of the teams in Group H to two goals per game, so it's a safe bet that, even with Ancalagon (leading scorer of the moment) and Tevildo (assists leader), Angband would score that much. However, Minas Tirith has been scoring against only lousy defences so far (except Gondor, which, however, is still a fair-to-middling defensive team). How well do you think would the Stewards fare against Morgoth, a Balrog, and Carcaroth? (They might score one, but that's the most I expect they'll get.)
Angband 2:0 Minas Tirith

B1 Eriador vs G2 Doriath
Elrond's no longer the ridiculous clean-sheet machine that he was last season, but he's allowed all teams against him (ranging from mediocre Arnor to fearsome Gondolin) only one goal. So expect Doriath's free-flowing offence to score that much. On the other end, Melian and company would be hard-pressed to stop two fleet-footed strikers who play well off each other complemented by midfield runs from Arveleg.
Eriador 2:1 Doriath

C1 Erebor vs F2 Imladris
Imladris had a tough time scoring in the group stage. Erebor conceded just one to Wilderland's First Age offence.
Erebor 1:0 Imladris

D1 FC Valinor vs E2 The Havens
FC Valinor conceded only to Tirion in a game that no longer counted. They bludgeoned Real Valinor, their putative rivals, as well as perennial Cup contender Armenelos. The Havens has a mediocre defence and a good offence. That won't be enough even to slow FC Valinor down.
FC Valinor 4:0 The Havens

E1 The Sea vs D2 Real Valinor
The Sea scored one against Valimar, and conceded just two to Hithlum. Real Valinor is about Hithlum's level in offence, and just a notch below Valimar in defence--they did concede three to FC Valinor, but only one each to Tirion and Armenelos. Fortunately for them, Tar-Minastir and Tar-Aldarion aren't Curufin and Celegorm.
The Sea 1:2 Real Valinor

F1 Rohan vs C2 Dwarves United
This is one of the better match-ups for the Eorlingas. They can play their slow-paced possession game, starve Dwarves United of the ball, and build up safely for their winner.
Rohan 1:0 Dwarves United

G1 AC Beleriand vs B2 Gondolin
Expect Gondolin to score even against AC Beleriand's defence. Expect AC Beleriand to score more against Gondolin's so-so defence.
AC Beleriand 4:2 Gondolin

H1 Gondor vs A2 Shire-Bree United
Shire-Bree United held Angband and Tol-in-Gaurhoth to two goals, and Gondor, with their offence, is expected to get as much. But SBU also got two past the same teams, who had better defensive personnel than Gondor has (although TiG's sudden dip in form is puzzling.) They'd probably need extra-time to do so, but expect the stronger attack of SBU to prevail.
Gondor 2:3 Shire-Bree United
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