Eriador vs
Doriath
[Projected formation.
Eriador in white and black;
Doriath in silver and blue.]
Formation:
Doriath would most likely use the same lopsided 4-4-1-1 they used to great effect against Nargothrond, with Beleg the link between the two defensive banks of four and Mablung. Melian’s three straight starts at central defence would be extended for at least one more game, matching her and Galathil against the strong and agile Witch-king, leaving Nimloth to counter Glorfindel’s pace and intelligent positioning. But one problem with Doriath’s 4-4-1-1 is that it leaves at least one fullback free. Against Nargothrond that was no problem, since their defenders rarely press downfield, but against Eriador, Lúthien’s deep position would leave Gil-galad with space to push down the pitch. If Arveleg timed his run perfectly against Saeros on the right (which we know he can do), then Gil-galad would have space to take on the distracted Doriath left back.
Eriador has been using the same 4-1-3-2 for three group stage games with great results, and would not likely change it.
Tactics:
Doriath has been one of the most tactically interesting teams of the tournament, neutralising teams deemed to be stronger than them by having the right players in the right places. Fielding Beleg and Lúthien as defensive wingers against the offensive fullbacks Fingolfin and Ecthelion of AC Beleriand, and then arraying two rows of four defensive players to contain the powerful and versatile attacking line-up of Nargothrond, they got a draw against one of the Cup contenders and a win against the team most expected to advance second in their group. Along the way the Fenced Realm had greater success as a counter-attacking team, losing the only game where they tried to take the initiative, so expect them to use the same strategy against a superior Eriador side.
Eriador’s defence is bound to get more attention due to the presence of star shotstopper Elrond, but credit must also be given to their offence, scoring more than two goals per game in a group containing decent defences. Wiki and Glorfindel have great synergy—their off-the-ball movements create enough space for each other—and Arveleg’s intelligent runs from midfield has proven to be the extra punch Eriador needs to break through stubborn defences.
AC Beleriand vs
Gondolin
[Projected formation.
AC Beleriand in red and white;
Gondolin in blue and white.]
Formation:
The formation battle promises to be interesting, with the two teams fielding different interpretations of the venerable 4-4-2: AC Beleriand’s wingless 4-4-2 diamond vs Gondolin’s skewed 4-2-2-2. Meleth, despite not being in the stat sheet, has been a quietly effective distributor, having initiated many of the Hidden Realm’s chances from deep in the midfield. Gondolin’s attacking width comes from Maeglin working the channels between central and right defenders and Elemmakil looking to find space to cross on the left of the box. Duilin provides the midfield runs that break down defences paying too much attention to the powerful Gothmog and the crafty Maeglin.
AC Beleriand, as stated by MESPN, have natural markers for the Gondolin striker duo—left back Fingolfin against Maeglin and Ecthelion (who would have to move to centre back, perhaps in place of Imlach) against Gothmog. And when AC Beleriand is in possession, Maeglin must not be lax in marking Fingolfin; Gondolin’s back four would already have a handful in Fëanor and Eöl, and letting Fingolfin make his way downfield would push them past the breaking point.
Tactics:
It would be a close battle in the midfield, with four central midfielders from each side. AC Beleriand’s Beren is without a doubt one of the best attacking midfielders in the tournament, and his teammate Bregolas and Gondolin’s Salgant are adequate holding midfielders, but overall Gondolin have slightly better passers: Duilin and Elemmakil have a combined nine assists (including friendlies), and Meleth, as has been mentioned earlier, has been an efficient deep-lying playmaker. However, considering the two squads’ last group games, AC Beleriand would have more energy to press than Gondolin, and that might tilt the possession stat in favour of Fëanor’s side.
Looking at their projected formations, the players who would have the most amount of space play on the same side of the pitch: Denethor and Imlach (or perhaps Ecthelion) on AC Beleriand’s right, and Elemmakil and Galdor on Gondolin’s left. It looks like the natural tendency would be for the free fullbacks to mark the free midfielders, but moving higher up the pitch would leave their respective sides with only a back three. Doing so might leave high work-rate strikers, especially those who move around looking for space (AC Beleriand’s Eöl and Gondolin’s Maeglin) with a lot of room.