You want more luck you say? Ha! You won't find any more luck in these parts. We started with 32 and are now down to 4. You don't reach this stage based on 'luck.' Maybe, by chance you can sneak into the playoffs, or win a playoff game, but not the semis. You know where teams like Tuna, Taniquetil, and Dor-Lomin are at, after whining about the 'unlucky' bounces, the 'favouritism' in officiating, or the 'will' of Eru? They are back at home drowning themselves in tears and Gin. This is the big stage, you want the Championship, you better have more than luck. All four of these teams have proven they have the game and skills to be where they are, and this will surely be a finale to remember.
Alright, so I didn't deliver on the 4-0 promise from last week, but that was because the mighty Mirkwood slayers strike again. I'm still 9-3 now in the playoffs, and even more impressive, in the Quarters I predicted 7, out of the 8, of the teams' scores correctly. That's right, I haven't been 'lucky,' nor have I been 'unlucky,' that's just plain out skill. (Are you beginning to sense a theme for this week?) So, I predicted Valimar's score wrong, and they lost...maybe you lost some money, but if you were smart to chose the scores I picked, you probably won more than you lost. You're welcome.
There are 4 matches remaining, we will soon be down to 2, and then a champion! Let us begin...
Angband v. Hithlum
This will be an exciting match, and an extremely hard one to call. The
Nerwendis odds-makers have no idea how to call this one.
Let's start with the offense, and the edge will go to Angband. Ancalagon doesn't seem to be performing at the level he was expected to, but that's a bit deceiving. Dragons cause huge problems for defenses, and opponent defenses always try to focus on Ancalagon, but this has been freeing up Maeglin and Hurin to do some damage. Plus the role players Telvildo and Thuringwethil have added significant contributions from time to time. I said at the beginning of the year Dragons cause some real heartburn for defenses, and half the teams remaining have a Dragon.
Defensively the edge will go to Hithlum. Carcharoth has been one of the best goal-tenders of late, however his defense is a problem. Hithlum's defense is led by Ulmo, and the way they work together is just stunning to watch, they look far better in this Cup than Eregion did. They have the ability to pack in the box tight and create little space for opponents to get off a good shot, but also amazing closing speed on the edge. Offenses either have to pass it back out, or send in a suicide cross, before Ulmo comes crashing in, steals the ball, and starts a dangerous counter-attack. Also, Hithlum's defense rarely picks up a card, that's because they rarely get beat, and if they do, they are quick at recovery.
Angband can play rough, which is a decent defensive strategy, but when you are playing against the best, hitting them hard will serve little benefit. Angband's defense comes no where near to the organization and speed of Hithlum's, which makes it an ultimately inferior strategy. Where Hithlum's potent offense will carve up Drauglin and make Carcharoth have a long day.
The X-factor of the match is Feanor. It's interesting to see them put up 3 goals against Dor-Lomin, but Feanor was not much of a factor (if at all). This just shows why Feanor is a true Captain, and not some over-paid, ball hog like Miriel, who will sit at midfield and throw a tantrum if she doesn't have the ball for 42 seconds every minute. Feanor has the ego to take over a game, and offensively carry his team on his backs, but also has shown he is not so ego-tistical that he won't ever give it up. If Feanor recognizes he is not at 100%, or he is having trouble breaking the double and triple teams, he has the skill to skill to quickly and effectively pass the ball off to a teammate, setting him/her up for a scoring oppurtunity. Feanor can take over a match, but he also trusts his teammates...and why wouldn't he? I mean they just put up 3 goals without his aid. Feanor will come back, in this match and pick up a goal and an assist, or 2 goals, to thank his team for being able to count on them and Hithlum will be going to the finals.
Hithlum wins 3-2.
Armenolos v. Mirkwood
Now this is going to be an interesting match. You have Armenolos singing songs of victory riding on "Tar-Atanamir's great hands," "Ar-Pharazon's golden leg," and "Sauron's black boot." But Mirkwood, who has their own pest problems, have been even bigger pests for their opponents (and without question the
Nerwendis odds-makers!). Ordinary fans might like the underdog story, but the House never likes an underdog.
Offensively, edge goes to Armenolos. They have been the best team throughout the tournament, not only offensively, but defensively. Sauron has quietly been a factor, getting a goal here, a goal there, as well as being one of the tops in assists. Mirkwood's got a very potent offense too, and I don't think Armenolos has faced one like it. Right now, with the way Thranduil is playing, he must not know he is a Sindarin elf, and Mirkwood better hope he doesn't remember he is merely a Sindar before the match. Sauron has that type of effect on opponents though, he has a tendancy to show people who they really are...and this time Thranduil doesn't have Galadriel or Celeborn to go begging to for assistance.
Defensively edge goes to Armenolos. How Mirkwood's defense has held up these last two matches is anyone's guess. I sure could not tell you, but it's hard to go against a team that has merely given up 3 goals all tournament, where Mirkwood usually gives up 2 a match. So far Mirkwood's been able to outscore their opponent, they actually are like the Tuna of last year, but no one has put up more than 2 goals against Armenolos this year. However, there's always a first.
But these daunting, almost impossible, odds are not scaring old Bilbo Baggins. Earlier in the week, MESN (Middle-Earth Soccer Network), hired Boromir II to come on as a player analyst for the games, and he had some harsh words for Bilbo:
"When's this old Bag going to give it up already? He should have quit playing in the World Cup years ago...hell he should have never been able to pass the physical! I mean just look at him! He's a 3 foot tall shrivelled Halfling! They already make horrible athletes, and I know from my days on the Rivendell team. You know I constantly had Aragorn and Gandalf on my back about giving the ball to Bilbo and Frodo. Oh, they will dribble in undetected and able to sneak past all the defenders, they would say to me. You want to know what happened? You guessed it...they got steamrolled, or well I should give Bilbo credit for taking a hit on occasion, Frodo just fell down for everyone. Ugh...it was pathetic. Sauron will school Bilbo Baggins! You better bring your bag and be ready, Bilbo, because Sauron is about to take you to school!"
Bilbo would not respond directly to Boromir II, showing why he is so well respected not only be the fans, but other members of the media. All Bilbo would say was about the larger conspiracy by Tournament officials, and now I guess the media, in wanting a Melkor-Sauron final for ratings. Surely a Melkor-Sauron final would be a match worthy of rememberance, but no one should be turning off Armenolos v. Mirkwood. In what could be his last World Cup, the x-factor is Bilbo.
TIE 2-2. (Armenolos wins in a shootout)
By: Jim "Scoop" Johnstone