[Boromir88]

Yes, but there's the Shasta question. If Mith's a wolf and he's her fellow, I don't see why she'd be so hot to Fenris him... and if she's a wolf and he's not, she tried hard hard to get someone lynched who had just announced he was an ordo, and thus a Little Red Cap candidate.~Nerwen

But who said Shasta was a wolf? I have no reason to doubt his ordo claim, and even though he was not chosen last night, I still don't. It could be that they want to push for his lynching today. Even if Shasta is LRC what benefit would it be for the wolves to night kill him and turn him, now that the talk swirled around him that he really could be LRC? If he is, and is turned, he will be lynched immediately...so might as well keep him around as an easy lynch choice, since he already claimed to be an ordo, but people will grow more and more suspicious if he doesn't wind up night killed. I might have just talked myself in circles, but maybe you can make sense of that.

Plus it is Agan's and Mith's jump on his ordo claim that is suspicious. I mean they both seemed to over-react. I can see reason in people questioning his claim, but both stressed "Woah Shasta made an ordo claim! Watch the sneaky wolf trying to get us off his tail!"

Mith immediately jumps on it within a span of 11 minutes:

Err Shasta, if you are an innocent, is that really the most helpful thing you could post? Not going to be any Captain Oates acts from you then are there?~post 71

But she votes for Shasta not because of a real belief he is a wolf, but to play cautious and if he is an ordo than he could be LRC. But the problem occurs when she continues to go after him, because his reveal was entirely unhelpful and therefor it makes him look like a wolf.

Also I want to look at Shasta again. His reveal was so spectacularly unhelpful as an opening gambit I wonder if it is genuine. If he is not a wolf then BBW may well take a punt.... since they have nothing to lose. From the baddies perspective he is either a plain ordo with a 20% chance of being LRC or he is a gifted bluffing.

From the goodies (goody goody gum gum) perspective he has made himself vulnerable and a liability. Not quite sure that it deserves a preemptive lynch - though it is tempting. And he could be that gifted bluffing...~152

BBW will surely check out Shasta if he knows he isn't a baddie. There is a 1/5 chance of him being LRC. I am just saying that if we aren't more certain about another candidate, lynching Shasta is damage limitation. Assuming he is telling the truth. Ruthless but when it comes to it we haven't got much margin for error.~163

The bolded part is interesting, because there is an interesting change from Shasta being a wolf, falsely claiming ordinariness, to now making a pretty assured statement that there is a 1/5 chance he is LRC, so it would be good to lynch him if there aren't other choices.

If Shasta were a wolf then it was an interesting opening gambit to make himself so conspicuous. And of course it makes lynching him a better idea!!!~177

Then back to Shasta's claim that make him look like a wolf and it would be good to lynch him.
And Agan in post 80:

Basically that's not a good thing to say for an ordo since it narrows down the field of possible Red Caps and therefore makes it easier for the Big Bad Wolf to guess her identity.

Agan's reaction looks a little better, because it is not an over-reaction, just a scolding that it wasn't helpful. I guess it's the vote for him that worries me.

Where with Mith, it was pretty consistent pushing towards Shasta. She did get us thinking about LRC and Hansel and Gretel, but that doesn't make her look innocent in anyway, just helpful, and wolves can be definitely be helpful. Other than that, her day was filled with Shasta, and going back and fourth on his ordo claim.

Glad I was able to warm up, I feel like I am really hitting my stride after accumulating some rust.

Edit: crossed with a lot of people and really don't want to see who it all was with