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I think there are three main points I need to address. The first is my personal way of trying to decipher what Tolkien left us. I put much more weight on Christopher Tolkien's words than some do. However, these are how I tend to come my conclusions.
1. Works published by JRR Tolkien.
2. Works published by Christopher Tolkien
3. The latest workable notes that don't contradict 1 or 2.
Christopher Tolkien knew his father and his father's works infinitely better than any of us can ever hope to do. Knowing his father he said this about his father's desire to stick with things he himself had published.
When discussing the descent of Celebrimbor, he wrote this about a late note placing him as a Teleri.
"no doubt he had forgotten that theory had appeared in print, for had he remembered it he would have undoubtedly have felt bound by it."-HOME XII 'Of Dwarves and Men
After this I tend to place precedent on things that Christopher Tolkien himself has published. He alone was left with sole authority to print, publish and edit what was left with the notes. Christopher Tolkien himself says it is impossible to have a definitive version of his fathers legendarium, but I give more credence to something he has published unless he explicitly states it to be a mistake.
The I take into account what Tolkien's last thoughts were on a matter as long as it does not contradict the first two precedents. However, I am not quick to dismiss detailed essays on brief notes, which at can be ambiguous at best.
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