Doesn't it say in the History of LOTR volumes of HoME that after a certain point Tolkien felt that he was writing down what had happened rather than "controlling" it.... of course this doesn't mean necessarily he seriously regarded it as actual history rather it could be that having got the situation and charaters to a certain stage of development there was an inevitability about how events would unfold...
Thenks for the link Davem
