I see where you're coming from. I agree that a good commander is a mix of rashness and caution. It just a matter of luck. If the commander is in the right situation for his personality, then he can be victorious.
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But Melkor also was there, and he came to the house of Fëanor, and there he slew Finwë King of the Noldor before his doors, and spilled the first blood in the Blessed Realm; for Finwë alone had not fled from the horror of the Dark.
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