TTN - Round 4 Preview
The very last round of friendlies, and the predictions will be significantly shorter, as most teams will be looking ahead to the Arda Cup and not concentrate on winning their final friendly. If a team isn't prepared for the tournament at this point, the last friendly won't be too helpful. Teams who've had a strong showing, will be conserving and making minor refinements. Where Doriath and Nargothrond are probably just hoping to get the nightmare over, and prove their worth when it matters.
Aman vs. Gondolin
Has Gondolin been figured out already or was it simply over-rated because they finally played a quality defense? Scoring 4 goals against Dale and Dol Guldur each, but only getting 1 against the Barrow-Downs. Aman plays a similar team-minded defense like the Barrow-Downs, and are probably better athletes, so expect Gondolin's offensive numbers to further decline. Aman is more efficient scoring (14.3%) than the Barrow-Downs (13.2%), but doesn't create nearly as many chances, 28 to BDs 38.
Draw 1-1.
Barad-dur vs. Eithel Sirion
Eithel Sirion proved they are a serious championship contender with a good 2-1 win against Mithrim. However, I also think Barad-dur proved their quality against Dale. Yes, it was against Dale, but not only was it a convincing 3-1 win, Barad-dur proved Sauron, Islidur, and Gil Galad weren't the only football players on the team. Since, both teams should be pleased with their performance in the friendlies, they will both relax and step back in this match. A shame really, because if the game meant something, this would be a most exciting match-up. Let's hope they meet in the tournament, eh?
Eithel Sirion wins 2-1.
Barrow-Downs vs. Numenor
Numenor hasn't really played any
great competition in the friendlies and that could come back to hurt them in a highly competitive Group E. The good news is the Barrow-Downs will likely be one of the few teams who will bring their A-game. They play with a competitive tenacity and work-ethic, each and every game, that hasn't been seen in Arda before. The scary thing is, the Barrow-Downs has the stamina to do this, and still come into the tournament fully-rested. The Barrow-Downs will bring their best and if Numenor isn't ready, don't be surprised if the lose. However, Numenor's defense is always prepared and looks to be just as dominating as last year.
Numenor wins 1-0.
Beleriand vs. Lorien
Lorien will likely pick up their 3rd win in the friendlies, but who have they beaten? They've been playing above expectations, especially on goal-scoring (a flat 15%), but they've had a very weak friendly schedule (Tirion, Minas Anor, Gelion, and Beleriand). Out of those 4, Tirion is the only one strongly-favored to make it to the playoffs, with Gelion having an out-side chance if they can get some scoring. And they did absolutely nothing against the one playoff-looking team they did play, losing 2-0.
Lorien wins 1-0.
Breeland vs. Minas Anor
Both teams are haplessly 0-3 in friendlies, so the good news is fans should be treated to an entertaining match, as Bree and Anor will be looking for a win to give them a boost of optimism in the tournament. However, let's face the facts, whoever does win will have a very difficult up-hill battle to make it out of group play and whoever loses will have trouble just avoiding the cellar. And if it ends in a draw? They're both in the cellar.
Bree wins 3-2.
Bywater vs. Vinyamar
Shadowfax and Bywater's D really stifled Pelennor's strong attack, but again Cotton proved he is an inept goal-keeper. Seriously I'd rather place an ancient tree in the middle of the goal if I were Bywater, because at least then you are making your opponents strike the ball with a bit of accuracy. He takes poor angles, is easily faked, dives the wrong way. It's a joke, and a pity, because Bywater has a good defense. Vinyamar though has a better defense (probably because they have a better GK), allowing only 1 goal to Havens and Tirion each.
Vinyamar wins 1-0.
Dale vs. Gorgoroth
Completely opposite from Bywater. Dale's got a good goal-keeper, but a pathetic defense. 6 of their players are in negative points because of how many cards they pick up (that is double than the Misty Mountains!!) At least the Misty Mountains make it worth all the cards, by how badly they can bruise you up. Thru 3 games Brand has faced 30 shots on target (the next closest is OMW, 25). You know what the league average is thru 3 games? Halve-it! Could you imagine how good Bywater would be with Brand and how terrible Dale would be with Cotton?
Gorgoroth wins 2-1.
Dol Guldur vs. Rohan
The Witch-King's hatred against Rohan is only topped by his hatred for Gondor. It was the wench Eowyn and her little side-kick Merry whom killed him on the Pelennor. Eowyn has departed from Rohan, but it makes no difference to the Wiki, and besides Merry has returned to Rohan. This will be another rather exciting match as the teams are just natural enemies, which should guarantee a hard fought game. Plus there's still a lot to be seen from whether Rohan's new defensive players...erm horses...are up to the challenge yet.
Draw 2-2.
Doriath vs. Rivendell
Not much to say here. Doriath won't score, because of Elrond. Rivendell will eek out a 1-0 victory, but there won't be any great excitement. If it's 0-0 at the half, I would be surprised if anyone is left in the stadium to watch the 2nd. Unfortunately, TTN reporters must sit thru it.
Rivendell wins 1-0.
Gelion vs. Mithrim
There has been no indication that Mithrim will run away with the 2010 Arda Cup. While definitely a good team, they are not a juggernaut. They are too dependant on their FWs for scoring and as I said earlier, if they can't score their defense is not used to facing a lot of pressure. Gelion won't be much of a scoring threat, but don't be surprised if Mithrim's own offensive woes continue, currently sitting at a woeful 12%. For the talent, and money, Mithrim has invested this year, that is unacceptable.
Mithrim wins 1-0
Gondor vs. Pelennor
Should be one of those games that are a joy to watch. Respectful but also some well-played football. If either one makes it out of their group, they can go on a cinderella Mirkwood-like run. I would not be surprised by that at all.
Gondor wins 2-1.
Havens vs. Ithilien
Defensively, Ithillien should match up better against the Havens than the mighty Thangorodrim. However, the Havens can pretty much score against anyone, where Ithilien can't. I think Ithilien will find it much harder to score against the fleet-footed Elves than the often-times overly aggressive Thangorodrim team.
Havens wins 2-0.
Misty Mountains vs. Wold
Hama will remain perfect, but I repeat we won't know anything more about the Wold's defense. They've played 4 teams who have the scoring potential of a wet blanket, as well as 4 teams who are completely winless so far. Vinyamar's managed 3 draws and Misty Mountains 1, that's it. They've played nobody, so don't get too high on their chances to advance yet.
Wold wins 1-0.
Nargothrond vs. Valimar
Nargothrond's not going to score, that's not remotely difficult to predict. What is, is whether Valimar will make this a completely boring match, by holding possession and conserving for the tournament, or if they will try for a 1-0 win. If Valimar does decide they want to win, they will because Nargothrond's defense isn't good enough to stop them. If not, it ends a draw.
Draw 0-0.
Norbury vs. Tirion
Norbury has had perhaps the toughest schedule during the friendlies, which if they aren't too demoralized may prove their benefit in Group D, which has a vastly depleted Nargothrond team and the unknown, untested Pelennor. The Havens looks like a playoff caliber team, and Rohan's got a reasonable chance, and we know barring unpredictable collapse, Thangorodrim and Tirion are serious playoff contenders. The defenses (and Arvedui) have held up better than Dale, plus they've scored in all their matches. Norbury will leave the friendlies winless, but don't think they will get run-over in group-play.
Tirion wins 2-1.
Thangorodrim vs. Utumno
This will be interesting, because of the story at the beginning of the year when Melkor did not return to Thangorodrim and actually stole many of their players when starting up Utumno. However, those ill-feelings are likely a thing of the past, since the play of Durin's Bane and the 3-dragons, for Thangorodrim has been spectacular. Melkor will likely try to flex his muscles, to show his underlings while he's not there he is still their Master. After Thangorodrim last victory, when Uldor was asked about their upcoming match against Utumno:
"We're rather glad Melkor decided not to come back. Everyone knows Durin's Bane, Glaurung, and Scatha would have never agreed to join the team if he did. And we are much better off with them than with Melkor."
Draw 2-2.