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Old 08-13-2012, 01:52 AM   #128
Coppermirror
Shade of Carn Dûm
 
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I don't necessarily believe all of the theories I've written below. But here:

If Inziladun is the wolf and Kitanna the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- It was sensible for Kit to come forward immediately.
- Zil had no choice but to come out as a fake Seer.
- It was overly convenient that Zil claimed to dream of Nerwen. He may have thought he was sure to go down, and didn't want to reveal any more innocents.
- He remained calm while Kit lost her temper, and gave away her advantage. A wolf would have a better chance of keeping calm.

Both Kitanna and Inziladun have given lists of those they find suspicious. If the Seer, Kitanna must have hidden the innocent in the list.

I think that if Kitanna is the Seer, she's withholding the known innocent's name because that person will without a doubt be taken in the night if she does. She seems to have had a bad run of Seer-ship in the past. Maybe she was sure she would be lynched and this is why she will not name the innocent.

If Kitanna is the wolf and Inziladun the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- Kitanna wanted to draw out the Seer, as Pitchwife suggested.
- OR she already thought that Inzil was the Seer, and thought she could get him lynched without using up a Night kill. (Risky...)
- The wolves were in extreme danger toDay from the Seer. A good strategy would be to throw suspicion on the probable innocents, and eliminate the Seer. (But then again, Zil was sure to look like the Seer. It's very risky to go after him toDay rather than last Night.)
- Either way, Zil had no choice but to come forward as the Seer.
- Kit's sudden anger is a calculated attempt to make herself look innocent.
- She's not giving away the name of a "known innocent" (or fake innocent...) because she doesn't want to hand us information. (? I don't think that makes sense. Well, perhaps it's simply a confusion tactic.)
- She did this now because she needs to distract us from catching the third wolf.

I'm troubled because whether or not Inzil is Seer or Wolf, it made some sense for him to be hedging his bets on the first day with what he said at first was a plan to use me as bait but later said that it was all aimed at catching a dreamed-of Kitanna-wolf. Whatever happened he could claim either option.

Both of them have gone through their suspicions. That's what I think a Seer would do. They are both casting suspicion on people.

Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.

++Inzil
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