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Yes, you are correct in theory. However, based on discussions on other boards where people working inside the film industry have posted, it is my belief that the contract between Zaentz and New Line calls for substantial progress to have been made before that date (in production) for them to be able to do the film. Having a script in the works or naming a director or even scheduling a starting filming date would not be enough.
I realize that until one actually reads the contract and is aware of the actual terms all this is speculation. But I am basing this on six months of following this whole issue on a daily basis and the opinions of insiders who are in a position to know.
This whole thing reminds me of the scene in WIZARD OF OZ where the Wicked Witch turns over that gorgeous hourglass and Dorothy watches her time run out. Thats a great deal like New Line and their HOBBIT rights today. Each day that goes by means a little less chance that they will ever make this film.
Right now, they have nothing. No script. No actors under contract. No director. No special effects house. No crew. No shooting schedule. Nothing. THE HOBBIT is not like shooting a movie of the week where you can rope off a New York or LA street at dawn and shoot what is there with a small crew and a handful of actors. I imagine it will take a good six to nine months of pre-production work just to get everything in place to begin filming. And that is a very liberal estimate. It could take twice that.
With all the location shots and special work necessary the actual shoot could take another six months. Then there is a lengthy post production process in any film that is heavy with special effects and CG work. Adding all that up takes us beyond the expiration date of the New Line HOBBIT rights.
Zaentz has already said that Peter Jackson will make THE HOBBIT. He has positioned himself to make a deal with another studio and Jackson as soon as he is legally able to. Zaentz wants to maximize his profit participation and the way to do that is with the same man you turned the first three films into $4billion dollars US.
Look at it this way. I do not know what Zaentz's profit participation number is but lets say its 5% of gross. If New Line rushes something into production with a lesser director and the public does not take to it like they did the LOTR films, the gross could be way down compared to the LOTR films. Instead of looking at 5% of a billion dollar film, Zaentz gets a check for 5% off a $350 million dollar film. Thats a huge difference.
If he makes a new deal two things happen for Zaentz. He can negotiate a better profit participation deal than he now is getting and he can put himself in a position where he gets Jackson at the helm to insure his take. Its a win-win situation for both Zaentz and Jackson. Shaye and New Line can only lose.
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