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Old 12-31-2017, 05:15 AM   #63
Pitchwife
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So, this should clear up the question whether D1 lynches are useful or not, shouldn't it?

A look at the votes (known wolf bolded, known innocent italicized):

#40 Huey -> Rune (1), as announced in #35. Huey had playfully challenged Rune (together with Boro and Sally) in his first post, focussed on Boro for a while, then begun to suspect Rune mildly based on Rune's 'overly-strong agreement' with his suspicion of Boro, repeated this point in #32 and pondered voting for Rune, which he did after being counter-suspected by Rune.

Fairly coherent, perhaps a bit much so, since it was all based on one point in one post of Rune's, but of course we now know he was right. The only way I could see Huey doing this as a wolf would be if he's unexperienced at making up suspicions against innocents and thus resorted to wolf-on-wolf in lack of anything better, but if so it was rather daring in a pack of two. Seems genuine though, and I'd say he looks pretty good toDay.

#43 Rune -> Zil, as announced in #41. Known wolf voting known innocent. Had previously surfed on Huey's suspicion of Boro, my own BoroMoon theory and Zil's observation that Huey was being jumpy, then turned on Zil after declaring that he wouldn't want to vote for Huey on his first day.

In case there was any wolf-on-wolf afoot between Rune and Huey this sudden turn would make lots of sense. So does his reluctance to vote for a cobbler-candidate, if he really believed in this theory.

#46 Boro -> Nerwen, out of the blue, because he didn't want to vote one of the active people, and because she'd be dangerous if a wolf.

Random vote for a player who had just one early IC post, reasoning looking very much like he coughed it up ad hoc. Having slept over it I tend to agree with Zil (#53) that it was 'reckless for a wolf', but it didn't seem to me a vote with the village's best interest in mind.

#48 Pitch -> Boro. I'll leave this one for you to analyse, but Boro had been worrying me for much of the Day. I also had mild suspicions of Huey and Zil, and Rune's sudden turn on Zil raised my eyebrows, but with the rules saying the first person to get a majority gets lynched I didn't feel bad enough about any of them to give them a second vote.

#51 Lalaith -> Sally, because a distracted sally is 'a Very Bad Sally'. (Is that supposed to mean simply bad or Evil?)

Another vote for a player who had barely participated, based on reasoning that was rather meta. Not unlike Boro's vote, and spreading the votes thinner. I feel her pain about transatlantic deadlines, but I don't like this.

#54 Zil -> Rune (2), as announced in #53. Known innocent for known wolf, because of the way he latched on to other's suspicions, 'then moved from all that to vote for me'. This got the wagon rolling leading to Rune's lynch an hour from DL and probably made Zil a target for the Night kill.

#58 Sally -> Rune (3). Previously agreed with me about Boro's vote, but found lynching him too risky (duly noted), voted Rune 'purely to avoid a sudden shift we didn't expect'.

This vote cemented Rune's fate right at DL-- or did it? Even if one of the other candidates had got another vote (which was unlikely at this time), Rune would still have been lynched based on the Rule of First. Thus Sally's vote looks good on first sight, but could well have been made by a fellow-wolf who found D1 had gone horribly wrong in her absence and pushed what's falling to dissociate herself from Rune.

No vote: Nerwen, Morsul, Shasta. I'd really like to hear more from them toDay, and from yesterDay'S latecomers, Lal and Sally.
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