Quote:
Originally Posted by Coppermirror
Let's see. Assuming a worst case scenario that there are two wolves and that Sally is one of them... (But not factoring in Nimrodel and any hunting she might do.)
Scenario A - sacrificial wolf Shasta
Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill a guilty Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
5 innocents, 1 wolf.
Night 4. The wolf kills an innocent.
4 innocents, 1 wolf.
Day 4. If the true Seer died on Day 3 or Night 4, we kill a guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.
If the Seer is still alive, they come forward. Believing Sally, we kill the true Seer.
3 innocents, 1 wolf
Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.
Day 5. The remaining two innocents kill the guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.
So, I think that a sacrificial wolf Shasta would not work.
|
Yes, that's what I was just saying in my last post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coppermirror
Scenario B - innocent Shasta
Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill an innocent Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
4 innocents, 2 wolves.
Night 4. Wolves kill an innocent.
3 innocents, 2 wolves.
Day 4. We kill a guilty Sally.
3 innocents, 1 wolf.
Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.
Day 5. Vote decides the matter between two innocents and one wolf. Game over, could go to wolves or could go to village. However, if the true Seer had had any useful dreams to tell us at some point or we had additional info, that could make the odds better.
|
This is why this would make sense if
Sally is convinced
Shasta is the seer & he dreamed of her already - she'd be doomed, so she may as well take him (and
Nimrodel) down with her. And of course it would be better for her to reveal before
Shasta did, since it would give her a better chance of misleading innocent votes.
All this hinges on her not having a plausible story when she gets back - we'll see.