The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

Eönwë · 08-28-2013, 05:33 PM

Also, bear this in mind: once I'm dead, the player list looks like this:

Shasta [S]
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Greenie
Echo
Lommy

That means that after their Night kill, it will be 2:6.

Ok, so you we react all depends on the Seer. The problem is that we haven't been told whether or not the Seer can tell the difference between Saruman and the other sorcerers. So, these are the possibilities as I see them (excluding special circumstances like saves, hunts and lover findings):

1. Seer has not dreamt of a sorcerer
You have to kill Shasta. Better to kill a known wolf than chase after an unknown. And then:

A. Shasta is Saruman. You only need to hunt down the last wolf. Ratio is 1:6.

B. Shasta is the other sorcerer. By the next morning, the ratio is 2:4, which means that the village has to guess correctly that day.

2. Seer has dreamt of Saruman
You kill Saruman. Hope it's not Shasta.

3. Seer has dreamt of a sorcerer

A. We know it's not Saruman (after Sally confirms):
1. It's not Shasta- kill Shasta.
2. It's Shasta- kill Shasta, since he's the only known wolf.

B. We don't know whether it's Saruman or not (after Sally confirms):
1. It's Shasta- Same as 1A
2. It's not Shasta
a. The wolves know this - they're playing this sort of game with the village.
b. The wolves don't know this - Given that the other option is a possibility too, it's probably more likely that it's not Shasta.

4. Seer has dreamt of both
If Saruman's identity is unknown, the village is forced to play the wolves' game.

edit: fixed wording

08-28-2013, 05:33 PM	#298
Eönwë Flame Imperishable Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Right here Posts: 3,928	The next few Days Also, bear this in mind: once I'm dead, the player list looks like this: Shasta [S] Kath Nerwen Cop McCaber Lottie Greenie Echo Lommy That means that after their Night kill, it will be 2:6. Ok, so you we react all depends on the Seer. The problem is that we haven't been told whether or not the Seer can tell the difference between Saruman and the other sorcerers. So, these are the possibilities as I see them (excluding special circumstances like saves, hunts and lover findings): 1. Seer has not dreamt of a sorcerer You have to kill Shasta. Better to kill a known wolf than chase after an unknown. And then: A. Shasta is Saruman. You only need to hunt down the last wolf. Ratio is 1:6. B. Shasta is the other sorcerer. By the next morning, the ratio is 2:4, which means that the village has to guess correctly that day. 2. Seer has dreamt of Saruman You kill Saruman. Hope it's not Shasta. 3. Seer has dreamt of a sorcerer A. We know it's not Saruman (after Sally confirms): 1. It's not Shasta- kill Shasta. 2. It's Shasta- kill Shasta, since he's the only known wolf. B. We don't know whether it's Saruman or not (after Sally confirms): 1. It's Shasta- Same as 1A 2. It's not Shasta a. The wolves know this - they're playing this sort of game with the village. b. The wolves don't know this - Given that the other option is a possibility too, it's probably more likely that it's not Shasta. 4. Seer has dreamt of both If Saruman's identity is unknown, the village is forced to play the wolves' game. edit: fixed wording __________________ Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place Last edited by Eönwë; 08-28-2013 at 05:38 PM.