The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

the phantom · 06-02-2008, 07:36 PM

Aw, too bad. I lost my future father-in-law! Ah, well at least he died knowing his daughter would be happy.

That is if she lives through this.

Let's see here, there are... 28 of us. Discounting the two Wizards the score is 23-3. Lynch one today, lose two during the night, and add a WW, and tomorrow the score will be 19-4. Then odds say we will lynch another innocent, then we lose two more the next night plus add another WW, and on Day 3 the score will be 15-5!

Most villages start out with something like, what, around 13-3 or so? So in other words on Day 3 it is likely that our ratio of WWs will already be worse than what most villages start out as.

All right, so suppose we start a village off at 15-5. It looks tough, doesn't it? But on top of that, in this village the WWs get an extra kill every night and there is the opportunity to add yet another WW every night! Let me ask, what sort of chance would you give that village of survival?

I see that the earliest a challenge can happen is Day 4. Suppose we lynch incorrectly on Day 3 (not a stretch if there are 5 WWs to 17 non-WWs) and the WWs kill yet again and the EW scries again on Night 4. That would mean coming into Day 4 the count would be 11-6!! The village would be more than one-third Werewolves!

And that's the earliest the GW can challenge the EW!

Assuming that he has even discovered him by that point.

Hmmm.... any chance I could be a WW? Come on, EW, don't you want me on your team? Pleeeeease.

Ah, but seriously, it comes down to this- the EW must be found quickly! If the EW is still unknown on Day 6 then we're dead. Day 5 we have a chance if we've had good luck lynching WWs. But by Day 4 would definitely be the best.

But how to find the EW? We must use some method or another to rank the likelihood of someone being the EW, whether we go based on play style in this game, personality, stated level of RL activity on the other thread, etc. But whatever method that is used, there will be some who will be ranked near the bottom, and if the EW is one of them- game over.

For instance, the GW may have already decided to judge based on personality and decided that Eonwe is not the sort to apply to be a Wizard. But if the EW is in fact Eonwe then the game is already over and we just don't know it yet.

Scary!

We must hope for good fortune in the lynch, successful dreaming by the Seer, and above all, we must hope that there is some halfway logical way to rule out candidates for EW that does not prove to be completely wrong.

06-02-2008, 07:36 PM	#16
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	opening rant... Aw, too bad. I lost my future father-in-law! Ah, well at least he died knowing his daughter would be happy. That is if she lives through this. Let's see here, there are... 28 of us. Discounting the two Wizards the score is 23-3. Lynch one today, lose two during the night, and add a WW, and tomorrow the score will be 19-4. Then odds say we will lynch another innocent, then we lose two more the next night plus add another WW, and on Day 3 the score will be 15-5! Most villages start out with something like, what, around 13-3 or so? So in other words on Day 3 it is likely that our ratio of WWs will already be worse than what most villages start out as. All right, so suppose we start a village off at 15-5. It looks tough, doesn't it? But on top of that, in this village the WWs get an extra kill every night and there is the opportunity to add yet another WW every night! Let me ask, what sort of chance would you give that village of survival? I see that the earliest a challenge can happen is Day 4. Suppose we lynch incorrectly on Day 3 (not a stretch if there are 5 WWs to 17 non-WWs) and the WWs kill yet again and the EW scries again on Night 4. That would mean coming into Day 4 the count would be 11-6!! The village would be more than one-third Werewolves! And that's the earliest the GW can challenge the EW! Assuming that he has even discovered him by that point. Hmmm.... any chance I could be a WW? Come on, EW, don't you want me on your team? Pleeeeease. Ah, but seriously, it comes down to this- the EW must be found quickly! If the EW is still unknown on Day 6 then we're dead. Day 5 we have a chance if we've had good luck lynching WWs. But by Day 4 would definitely be the best. But how to find the EW? We must use some method or another to rank the likelihood of someone being the EW, whether we go based on play style in this game, personality, stated level of RL activity on the other thread, etc. But whatever method that is used, there will be some who will be ranked near the bottom, and if the EW is one of them- game over. For instance, the GW may have already decided to judge based on personality and decided that Eonwe is not the sort to apply to be a Wizard. But if the EW is in fact Eonwe then the game is already over and we just don't know it yet. Scary! We must hope for good fortune in the lynch, successful dreaming by the Seer, and above all, we must hope that there is some halfway logical way to rule out candidates for EW that does not prove to be completely wrong. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important. Last edited by the phantom; 06-02-2008 at 07:41 PM.