Some astute observations here. For my own part, I think the skimpy number of Golden Globe nominations is telling. Don’t expect big things out of Oscar.
Best Picture: Not likely. As has been mentioned, I think it’s not as strong a film as Fellowship, leaving voters in an awkward position. Add in the fact that there is now a common perception that the “real” cut of the film will be released months later on DVD and the fact that the Academy almost never gives the award to “sequels” (The Godfather Part II is the only exception that I can think of), and I’d say you’re looking at a pretty long shot.
Best Director: Look out for Clint Eastwood. The Academy tends to reward more personal, intimate work. The performances of RotK are not its strong suit. Also, it’s widely known that a platoon of second-unit directors and a battalion of CGI artists had a big hand in making RotK a reality. I’ll be shocked if PJ walks away with a statue.
Adapted Screenplay: FotR didn’t win and TTT wasn’t even nominated. They may earn a nom here, but I doubt they’ll beat out the likes of Cold Mountain and Mystic River.
Score: Shore already won for FotR and there’s nothing much new here. Not likely. Academy favorite Hans Zimmer may get the nod for The Last Samurai.
Acting: The trilogy’s best shot was Ian McKellan for FotR. Astin may manage to land a nom here, but don’t count on it. Look for several Academy darlings to be nominated in the Supporting Actor category, making a win by Astin a near impossibility. It’s too bad the campaign for a Supporting Actor nom for Serkis wasn’t able to gain more momentum last year. He might’ve had more of a shot if the film had been better.
SFX categories and a sound award or two are reasonable bets, but Rings has lost Art Direction and Costume awards two years running, and there’s nothing new here. Master and Commander, The Last Samurai, and Cold Mountain will be contenders.
I wonder if the Chris Lee threat quoted above was made before (as I suspect) or after he was cut from the theatrical release.
I also predict grim chances for a SAG ensemble award. They’ve lost the past two years running, and the performances in RotK were not the strongest in the trilogy. I predict Mystic River. Robbins, Fishburne, Penn, Linney – these are actors’ actors. Seabiscuit also has some highly respected actors, and there’s a weird momentum around The Station Agent which makes them a strong dark horse candidate.
[ 12:55 PM January 19, 2004: Message edited by: Mister Underhill ]
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