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Old 05-16-2005, 01:25 PM   #200
Mithalwen
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,916
Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
I imagine this may well be my last post....

I have indeed analysed this and (sad to say copious note taking and even charts are involved). I am not completely confident but I don't think I am going to become more sure in the timeI have available (I hoe to check in first thing but it is not certain. Therefore I must vote now. So since it is not impossible I will change my mind if I see new evidence (and maybe this post will send the hounds in to draw a covert..). I beg you again to look at the evidence clear eyed. Apart from the fact that I feel certain to be the next victim, this ius our last best chance. Once the numbers reduce, it will be easier to get a majority. So look at the evidence and see if your conclusions agree with mine. Do not take my conclusions and make the evidence fit. I know this sounds arrogant but I know my success has attracted followers as well as enemies - and maybe followers who are enemies?

As I have reviewed the case and have divided the survivors into categories of suspicion. I have absolute confidence in noone but myself. However:

I suspect least perhaps Oddwen her only significant action has been to accuse Firefoot. To point a finger so decisively at a fellow werewolf would be a bizarre opening salvo when the game was so open right at the beginning. Again it woulod have been so much easier to join in witht he SPM stitchup .... even with muted enthusiasm.

Bilbo Baggins is also low on my list of suspects - Anguirel accused BB first before jumping on Fea's SpM band wagon.

Phantom -was accused early accused by both hanged werewolves. Others had suspicions (unfortuante name..) but I think maybe the Werewolves were unlucky that this bait wasn't picked up. Also, he has, as I have, used analysis with similar conclusions on Anguirel.......... so on the whole I wopuld be astounded if he were the remaining lycanthrope. But I will be too dead to be astounded if this is the case

I suspected Fea so much - it waspartly the irrational tie of friendship that made me choose Anguirel first and I had to be so careful last night to make sure it wasn't that that encouraged me to follow my instinct about Firefoot. However the words of Mormegil and Firefoot's accusation have helped move her off my immediate hit list ....

This leaves Kuruharan and Primrose Bolger. Kuruharan made me slightly suspiciou by his interest in my ideas, extreme reticence and late vosting. Just too passive for someone who was so enthusistic about the game. Too much the wise old owl. Also he said something about the least bloodthirsty being innocent... however he may just be playing the observer.. but I just felt he was letting others do too much of the work... and I was unnerved by his eagerness to make me expose my ideas more - become even more suspicious. I was scared of either being thought the seer or exposing the seer. However this is all circumstantial and not conclusive.

So.... Primrose has been too quiet... but she has been around. Like Anguirel she immediately attacked Bilbo, she was supported by Anguirel, she joined into the attack on the pan man. She has NOT voted but attempted to align herself with those who justly voted to lynch Anguirel and used it as a cue to encourage a summary execution of Fea before we could consider calmly. I do think it is likely that the third werewolf is one of the quiet ones - the ones you have to watch. And on balance of probabilities I vote ++ Primrose Bolger
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