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Nilpaurion Felagund · 05-06-2013, 02:20 AM

Before the Arda Cup 2013 preseason madness of transfers and friendlies begin, ArdaCup.com writer Adam 'not the economist' Smith continues his look back at the worst and the best signings of Arda Cup 2012.

(The contents of this article have not been reviewed or endorsed by ArdaCup.com. All opinions expressed by Adam Smith are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of ArdaCup.com or its staff, parent company, partners, or sponsors. His sources are not known to ArdaCup.com and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an Arda Cup accredited member of the media.

As you'll see, there's a reason we place this disclaimer only in his articles.)
____________________

I am much loved, it seems.

Less than 24 hours after posting my previous article, a deluge of letters overwhelmed our office. Many of them were sent by Orcs from Angband, Utumno, and Thangorodrim, each one containing a single letter in black speech. There was also a longer letter from an Angband address, this time in the common tongue, that said: 'If you put those letters together, they read: "We'll hang you by your intestines."'

I guess they're angry that two of their draconic comrades are in the list. Well, they're about to get more riled up: the next letter has a fair point regarding other members of the Angband squad.

Shouldn't we just lump all the high-salary players of Angband in your list? Despite Ancalagon's disappearing act in the Minas Tirith game, Tevildo's goal should have been enough for them to advance had Morgoth ($20 million), Balrog #1 ($15 million), or Carcaroth ($12 million) done a better job of keeping the Stewards from scoring.
-Araniel, Doriath

As I've said, a fair point. Even though Angband didn't let in more than two goals in any game, and those games where they let two in were against teams with a reputedly strong attack line, those teams also happen to be the most decaffeinated Tol-in-Gaurhoth team ever assembled, as well as Shire-Bree United, whose whole game plan seems to revolve around hoping Bombadil's head is on the game. Not to mention Angband really should have shut out the Downer and Minas Tirith. They had enough talent to.

You bash Ilmarë and Legolas in your article, but how could you ignore Saruman ($16 million) and Durin's Bane ($15 million), both of whom have the same goalscoring rate as Legolas? They're worse than the two you've mentioned because they don't even have a good defense to fall back on, so seeing those overpaid divas do so little effectively dashed their teams' hopes of advancing. Did you really watch all the games? I bet you're as overpaid and underperforming as these two.
-Miri, Greenwood the Great

You have a point (regarding Saruman and Durin's Bane, not the last part). But here's the thing--there never really was much expectation of these two teams--well, Misty Mts had a fair chance of advancing, but the quality gap between them and the two teams that did advance seemed so, well, gaping.

. . . But I'll concede that Saruman and Durin's Bane should have been in the top five. Maybe number two and three.

To start off:

Average salary of an Arda Cup player: $7.8 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a round of sixteen team: $8.5 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a quarterfinalist: $8.7 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a semifinalist: $9.1 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a finalist: $9.2 million
While I agree with Glaurung being the worst signing of 2012, how could Ilmarë and Legolas have made your list? Judging from the averages, Legolas is only $4.5 million overpaid, and Ilmarë $2.2 million over. Surely, Ar-Adûnakhôr ($15 million, 1 goal in three games) or Hador (exactly the same price and same scoring rate), both of whom came from teams that didn't advance past the group stage, are better shouts than the two I've mentioned.
-B, BD

First, thank you for doing my job for me.

Second, those two you've mentioned were not always that terrible. Hador scored four goals in three games in 2011, and that with a team that included Celegorm and Curufin. As for Ar-Adûnakhôr, he's a Cup winner and a very important teammate of Ar-Pharazôn. Armenelos and Hithlum were both in extremely tough groups, so they had mitigating circumstances. They're getting the same free pass as Túrin (most expensive signing at $24 million, his team eliminated in the group stage) is. If they do bomb again next year though . . .
____________________

And now I present the ten best contracts of 2012. Why ten? Because I found it easier to find underpaid players who stood out than the reverse (unlike my readers, it seems). In a world where negativity reigns, I am a breath of fresh air.

But first, honourable mentions, two names that cannot be ignored:

Fëanor (AC Beleriand): $22 million
Elrond (Eriador): $20 million

The very best there are at their positions. Painfully expensive for anyone on a shoestring budget, but if a team who can afford them needs a striker or goalkeeper, they should be the first names to look for. (Túrin should have been here, but he's held out because of his down year. Hopefully he bounces back--his 2011 performance was the best year any forward ever had.)

10. Melian (Doriath): $15 million

She's $5 million cheaper than Morgoth, had lower quality teammates than he had, and faced slightly better attackers than he did, but let in only two more goals in as many games! How did she do it?! Melian is one of the best all-around defenders in the game, and a very capable back line leader.

9. Glorfindel (Eriador): $13 million

Seven goals and six assists in twelve games over two seasons. Four and three in seven last year. If you want to say 'consistent' in Quenya or Sindarin, the word's 'Glorfindel'.

8. Bard (Erebor): $8 million
7. Arveleg (Eriador): $8 million

Both played significant roles at important junctures with Cup contenders, while collecting below average market salary (see the letter above). Bard scored the second vs Wilderland in the group stage and the equaliser vs FC Valinor in the quarterfinals. Arveleg assisted Glorfindel's winner vs Minas Tirith in the quarterfinals and scored the opener vs Erebor in the semifinals. Best $8 million ever spent, those teams' owners surely thought.

6. Anarion (Gondor): $11 million

If, before the start of the 2012 Arda Cup, you told any owner that they could have a franchise goalscorer for $11 million, they would have laughed at you. Though it remains to be seen if he could be consistently good--he did almost nothing as a defender in the 2011 Barad-dûr squad.

5. Beorn (Erebor): $10 million

He did better than Huan in every existing metric! His team advanced further, he saved more shots (32 to Huan's 18), had a better save rate (80% to Huan's 78.3%), and he even saved more penalties in that shootout between their teams! Remember in 2011 when Grimbeorn looked like he was a really good goalkeeper in Sauron's Wilderland team (before they ran into the Valinor buzz saw)? Apparently his talent was hereditary.

4. Míriel (Real Valinor): $14 million
3. Arien (Real Valinor): $14 million

Three goals and four assist for Serindë, 6+1 for the Sun-maiden. That's right--of the twelve goals for their team, these two scored three-fourths of them. But wait, there's a missing name.

(Nerdanel may have found a good way to mess with statheads--no matter if her team reaches the final or gets eliminated in the quarterfinals, she would always put up two goals and three assists.)

2. Curufin (FC Valinor): $14 million

Remember, he had exactly the same stats as Arien--in two less games. Not only that, he's comfortable as a centre forward or out wide, and, since he's a converted defender, he doesn't shy away from defensive work. In the Valinor derby, with his brother Celegorm, he hounded Real Valinor's defenders to the point that Tilion and Caranthir had difficulty passing the ball to the midfield.

Let's see: had Finrod put him in place of Glaurung, not only would they have saved $2 million, their lack of defence wouldn't have been a problem because they'd win every game 4-3 or 5-4.

And the biggest bargain of 2012:

1. Beren (AC Beleriand): $12 million

'He had almost the same stats as Glorfindel, and scored one goal less than Curufin or Arien; how come he's ranked higher?' some would surely moan. But here's the thing--Beren is way more than a goalscorer. Remember that he was also a defender in the juggernaut 2011 Doriath squad. Remember that he was often tasked to mark the opposing squad's most dangerous midfielder or fullback without forgetting to be a goal threat. He had a higher work rate than the entire Angband back line, or eleven Glaurungs. I doubt you would find another player who can do everything short of goalkeeping at his price.

05-06-2013, 02:20 AM	#4
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	ArdaCup.com Stats Report presents the worst and the best contracts of 2012. Before the Arda Cup 2013 preseason madness of transfers and friendlies begin, ArdaCup.com writer Adam 'not the economist' Smith continues his look back at the worst and the best signings of Arda Cup 2012. (The contents of this article have not been reviewed or endorsed by ArdaCup.com. All opinions expressed by Adam Smith are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of ArdaCup.com or its staff, parent company, partners, or sponsors. His sources are not known to ArdaCup.com and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an Arda Cup accredited member of the media. As you'll see, there's a reason we place this disclaimer only in his articles.) ____________________ I am much loved, it seems. Less than 24 hours after posting my previous article, a deluge of letters overwhelmed our office. Many of them were sent by Orcs from Angband, Utumno, and Thangorodrim, each one containing a single letter in black speech. There was also a longer letter from an Angband address, this time in the common tongue, that said: 'If you put those letters together, they read: "We'll hang you by your intestines."' I guess they're angry that two of their draconic comrades are in the list. Well, they're about to get more riled up: the next letter has a fair point regarding other members of the Angband squad. Shouldn't we just lump all the high-salary players of Angband in your list? Despite Ancalagon's disappearing act in the Minas Tirith game, Tevildo's goal should have been enough for them to advance had Morgoth ($20 million), Balrog #1 ($15 million), or Carcaroth ($12 million) done a better job of keeping the Stewards from scoring. -Araniel, Doriath As I've said, a fair point. Even though Angband didn't let in more than two goals in any game, and those games where they let two in were against teams with a reputedly strong attack line, those teams also happen to be the most decaffeinated Tol-in-Gaurhoth team ever assembled, as well as Shire-Bree United, whose whole game plan seems to revolve around hoping Bombadil's head is on the game. Not to mention Angband really should have shut out the Downer and Minas Tirith. They had enough talent to. You bash Ilmarë and Legolas in your article, but how could you ignore Saruman ($16 million) and Durin's Bane ($15 million), both of whom have the same goalscoring rate as Legolas? They're worse than the two you've mentioned because they don't even have a good defense to fall back on, so seeing those overpaid divas do so little effectively dashed their teams' hopes of advancing. Did you really watch all the games? I bet you're as overpaid and underperforming as these two. -Miri, Greenwood the Great You have a point (regarding Saruman and Durin's Bane, not the last part). But here's the thing--there never really was much expectation of these two teams--well, Misty Mts had a fair chance of advancing, but the quality gap between them and the two teams that did advance seemed so, well, gaping. . . . But I'll concede that Saruman and Durin's Bane should have been in the top five. Maybe number two and three. To start off: Average salary of an Arda Cup player: $7.8 million Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a round of sixteen team: $8.5 million Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a quarterfinalist: $8.7 million Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a semifinalist: $9.1 million Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a finalist: $9.2 million While I agree with Glaurung being the worst signing of 2012, how could Ilmarë and Legolas have made your list? Judging from the averages, Legolas is only $4.5 million overpaid, and Ilmarë $2.2 million over. Surely, Ar-Adûnakhôr ($15 million, 1 goal in three games) or Hador (exactly the same price and same scoring rate), both of whom came from teams that didn't advance past the group stage, are better shouts than the two I've mentioned. -B, BD First, thank you for doing my job for me. Second, those two you've mentioned were not always that terrible. Hador scored four goals in three games in 2011, and that with a team that included Celegorm and Curufin. As for Ar-Adûnakhôr, he's a Cup winner and a very important teammate of Ar-Pharazôn. Armenelos and Hithlum were both in extremely tough groups, so they had mitigating circumstances. They're getting the same free pass as Túrin (most expensive signing at $24 million, his team eliminated in the group stage) is. If they do bomb again next year though . . . ____________________ And now I present the ten best contracts of 2012. Why ten? Because I found it easier to find underpaid players who stood out than the reverse (unlike my readers, it seems). In a world where negativity reigns, I am a breath of fresh air. But first, honourable mentions, two names that cannot be ignored: Fëanor (AC Beleriand): $22 million Elrond (Eriador): $20 million The very best there are at their positions. Painfully expensive for anyone on a shoestring budget, but if a team who can afford them needs a striker or goalkeeper, they should be the first names to look for. (Túrin should have been here, but he's held out because of his down year. Hopefully he bounces back--his 2011 performance was the best year any forward ever had.) 10. Melian (Doriath): $15 million She's $5 million cheaper than Morgoth, had lower quality teammates than he had, and faced slightly better attackers than he did, but let in only two more goals in as many games! How did she do it?! Melian is one of the best all-around defenders in the game, and a very capable back line leader. 9. Glorfindel (Eriador): $13 million Seven goals and six assists in twelve games over two seasons. Four and three in seven last year. If you want to say 'consistent' in Quenya or Sindarin, the word's 'Glorfindel'. 8. Bard (Erebor): $8 million 7. Arveleg (Eriador): $8 million Both played significant roles at important junctures with Cup contenders, while collecting below average market salary (see the letter above). Bard scored the second vs Wilderland in the group stage and the equaliser vs FC Valinor in the quarterfinals. Arveleg assisted Glorfindel's winner vs Minas Tirith in the quarterfinals and scored the opener vs Erebor in the semifinals. Best $8 million ever spent, those teams' owners surely thought. 6. Anarion (Gondor): $11 million If, before the start of the 2012 Arda Cup, you told any owner that they could have a franchise goalscorer for $11 million, they would have laughed at you. Though it remains to be seen if he could be consistently good--he did almost nothing as a defender in the 2011 Barad-dûr squad. 5. Beorn (Erebor): $10 million He did better than Huan in every existing metric! His team advanced further, he saved more shots (32 to Huan's 18), had a better save rate (80% to Huan's 78.3%), and he even saved more penalties in that shootout between their teams! Remember in 2011 when Grimbeorn looked like he was a really good goalkeeper in Sauron's Wilderland team (before they ran into the Valinor buzz saw)? Apparently his talent was hereditary. 4. Míriel (Real Valinor): $14 million 3. Arien (Real Valinor): $14 million Three goals and four assist for Serindë, 6+1 for the Sun-maiden. That's right--of the twelve goals for their team, these two scored three-fourths of them. But wait, there's a missing name. (Nerdanel may have found a good way to mess with statheads--no matter if her team reaches the final or gets eliminated in the quarterfinals, she would always put up two goals and three assists.) 2. Curufin (FC Valinor): $14 million Remember, he had exactly the same stats as Arien--in two less games. Not only that, he's comfortable as a centre forward or out wide, and, since he's a converted defender, he doesn't shy away from defensive work. In the Valinor derby, with his brother Celegorm, he hounded Real Valinor's defenders to the point that Tilion and Caranthir had difficulty passing the ball to the midfield. Let's see: had Finrod put him in place of Glaurung, not only would they have saved $2 million, their lack of defence wouldn't have been a problem because they'd win every game 4-3 or 5-4. And the biggest bargain of 2012: 1. Beren (AC Beleriand): $12 million 'He had almost the same stats as Glorfindel, and scored one goal less than Curufin or Arien; how come he's ranked higher?' some would surely moan. But here's the thing--Beren is way more than a goalscorer. Remember that he was also a defender in the juggernaut 2011 Doriath squad. Remember that he was often tasked to mark the opposing squad's most dangerous midfielder or fullback without forgetting to be a goal threat. He had a higher work rate than the entire Angband back line, or eleven Glaurungs. I doubt you would find another player who can do everything short of goalkeeping at his price. __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good... Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 05-12-2013 at 06:19 AM.