Tar-Eldar Network Television takes a look at various teams’ financial and tactical situations before assessing what moves they would make based on those two factors.
Tirion
Financial situation:
A team funded partly by their supporters, Tirion cannot afford to go on a spending spree to improve their squad. They need to know exactly which part (or parts) needs an upgrade. (As an added cost-cutting measure, Thorondor is expected to be cut loose, or at least take a severe pay cut.)
Tactical situation:
But it can be argued that, since they were eliminated more by the toughness of their group than by their lack of quality, it would be hard to judge their squad’s weakness. Their attack might be fine, judging by the two goals they scored against Huan and FC Valinor’s defence (although that was a game that no longer mattered, with FC Valinor already assured of advancing and Tirion already eliminated.) Finwë was the top performers in last year’s round of friendlies, scoring seven goals and creating two in four games; some believed that this was confirmation how much better Tirion would have done had they not been in the ‘group of death’.
Their more obvious weakness was the defence, having conceded seven goals in three games. Pundits said that they paid for their tactical naïveté, fielding a back three against established strike partnerships (FC Valinor’s Celegorm/Curufin, Real Valinor’s Arien/Míriel/Nerdanel, and Armenelos’s Ar-Pharazôn/Ar-Adûnakhôr) when a back four would have given them more security. But their choice of personnel may have been the bigger culprit there—none of Irimë, Elenwë, or Thorondor had any experience playing in a back three, and they were unsure how to coordinate their movements with wingbacks Findis and Anairë, leaving them covering too much ground.
Conclusion:
Aside from Thorondor, the other question mark on their squad is Eönwë—will he stay or would he leave, perhaps going to Valimar (a team in dire need of goalscoring)? They would most likely make changes to their defence, but knowing how drastic the changes would be, as well as whether they would also make changes to the other parts of their squad, is at best an exercise in guesswork.
Dwarves United
Financial situation:
Aside from Aulë, the financial supporters of Dwarves United probably consider the team a side project, and they might be keener to avoid a loss than giving them a chance at a good run. However, last year’s results might have given them some push to open the purse strings a little bit more to improve the squad.
Tactical situation:
So what do Dwarves United need? The three goals they scored in four games say that they need another goalscorer, or a striker who can hold the ball up, preferably both, much preferably in one player. Legolas’s goalscoring form last year was poor, and his hold-up play was terrible (which was explainable because he played more as a second striker for his other clubs). His offensive contribution was reduced to occupying the opposition centre-backs, while Gamil Zirak and Telchar occupied the full-backs and Dwarves United left-back Celebrimbor advanced to take up goalscoring positions. Anduin and Wilderland didn’t punish them for pushing Celebrimbor and Aulë higher up the pitch; their attackers were more concerned with helping their defence than exploiting Dwarves United’s undermanned defence. But Rohan weren’t so naïve; they kept Eorl and Helm high up the pitch leaving them with a two-on-two situation during counterattacks.
Their defence was fine. They conceded a little over a goal per game, and goalkeeper Bombur had a save rate of 78.3% (same as Huan’s). Aulë and Azaghâl formed a fine central defensive partnership, and Celebrimbor proved his pedigree by being one of the best attacking full-backs in the game, like his father before him. Durin was more conservative at right-back, slotting smoothly into the centre whenever Aulë advanced to offer an additional crossing target up front.
Conclusion:
The signing of Galadriel from Wilderland has been widely rumoured even before last year’s Arda Cup ended. Considering her solid form as an attacking midfielder, as well as Dwarves United’s lack of reliable goalscorers other than Celebrimbor, she would be expected to take up Gimli’s spot as central attacking midfielder. If that is indeed the case, then they have a good chance of qualifying for the knockout stage again this year.
The Sea
Financial situation:
The Sea’s main financial backers have deep pockets, making it unlikely that they would be forced to cut wages for any purpose other than squad improvement. They went out to an on-form Real Valinor in the Round of Sixteen, not a totally embarrassing loss. But a team with a nine-digit wage bill should be fighting for at least a semifinal slot, not squeaking past their group through penalties and then getting eliminated in the first knockout round.
Tactical situation:
The Sea’s defence looked fine, at least on paper. Ulmo and Ossë formed an established centre back partnership, both powerful and dominant in the air. The Vala was more comfortable marking and tackling forwards, while the Maia’s job was to sit on the edge of the box, make headed clearances and get last-ditch blocks in. Out wide, Salmar and Uinen had the pace to match wingers and the clever positioning to check their runs. In the actual games, however, they conceded seven goals in four games. The problem lay with the one on goal; Voronwë had an atrocious save rate of 63.16%, the fifth worst last year.
Their attack also looked fine on paper, with forward Tar-Minastir, wingers Tar-Meneldur and Tar-Aldarion, and attacking midfielder Vëantur, but they scored only five goals in four games (Ancalagon of Angband managed as much as an individual). The problem with it was that their build-up play was too ponderous, with their attackers spending too much time playing in front of the defence. This was due to playing two holding midfielders Tar-Ciryatan and Eriol, both of whom were better at recovering the ball than distributing it; they needed an extra touch or two to control the ball, and then needed to look up at their target then down at the ball before passing. The seconds they spent doing so gave defences time to get behind the ball. They need a deep-lying playmaker who can quickly identify the killer pass and execute it in one move.
Conclusion:
The Sea need two things to make their talents mesh: a goalkeeper behind their solid back four and a playmaker behind their talented front four. There are rumours that Ulmo is close to signing a goalkeeper of Númenórean descent who performed well in the last Arda Cup. If these rumours are true, then the Sea would be one more signing away from being a possible force in the competition.
Minas Tirith
Financial situation:
Minas Tirith are unique in that they have a socialist wage structure—all of their players agreed to take the same salary (8 million). This move helped foster the team solidarity that was the key to their fairy-tale advance, although it may have discouraged star talents from signing with them.
Tactical situation:
But the cohesion of Minas Tirith was refreshing for neutrals to see. Everyone defended, and everyone contributed to the attacking build-up. They fielded a compact 4-4-1-1 shape (with Faramir just behind lone forward Boromir I) that was difficult to break down and advanced as a unit when they pressed. But they simply didn’t park the bus, as underdogs were expected to do; they broke forward quickly and purposefully, with wide midfielders Mardil and Eärnur storming up the pitch to combine with Boromir I and Faramir, overrunning defences before they can get back into shape.
But they themselves had problems against teams sitting deep, a situation that often happened whenever they went behind. Organised defences simply didn’t give Minas Tirith’s attackers too much respect; they kept their formation and didn’t go out of their way to give any of them special attention. (Compare that to, say, Fëanor, who is familiar with situations like
this.) Teams that were built on the cohesion of their personnel, like 2009 Mirkwood and 2012 Doriath, still had players who commanded a little more respect from the defence. If Minas Tirith wished to advance further into the tournament, they would do well to sign an Arda-class talent, unless they choose to bank on one of their players suddenly turning into one (like Anarion for Gondor).
Conclusion:
Signing a star player might upset Minas Tirith’s wage structure and do damage to the team solidarity that they fostered, but unless they count heavily on luck (that one of their players would become Arda-class, or that they would get lucky draws and/or lucky bounces in four knockout games), there is no other choice for this team to improve on their previous achievement.