[the phantom]

Projecting the Groups and Host Sites
by Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

Since there is less roster turnover going on this year, many are already thinking ahead to the groupings for the squads. In past years the Arda Cup Draw Committee has paid more attention to balance, but in this competitive salary cap era a bit more seems to be resting on geography, hence the possibility of a "group of death".

But it's doubtful we'll see a group as rough as last year's Group D in this year's competition, partly because it would be tough to duplicate, and secondly because the Committee has made a statement regarding a wish to avoid grouping the same teams year in and year out.

So, with that in mind, and also with an eye towards which sites are likely to host, we can make some educated guesses as to the groups this year. And let's face it- our favorite thing about the pre-season is making wild predictions and then patting ourselves on the back for the few we get right!

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Let's start with what we know-

Eru has stated that he wants to see the final round of group games played simultaneously (like Group C at Moria last year, playing one game underground and the other in the dale). So any site selected for group play must be relatively near a secondary site good enough to host a third round game.

Also, the contract for semis and finals to be played at Rauros has expired, and statements we've heard have indicated that the ACC thinks it's time for a bit of variety. Given that they aren't using that arena for the finals, it seems logical that it's being used for something.

The ban on games in Valinor has been lifted. The folks from the Blessed Realm will likely be gung-ho to show themselves as fantastic hosts so as not to suffer another ban, and more than likely the ACC will want to take advantage of their eagerness to please.

So, in my opinion, Valinor is a cert for hosting both in groups and in the playoffs. But with four different teams from the Blessed Realm (and the likelihood that FC, Real, & Tirion won't be grouped together), who hosts, and which teams come?

Tirion's primary and secondary stadiums would be a logical choice, but so would Valimar's, so it seems one of them will host. As to the visiting squads, if it's Tirion then The Sea and The Havens and a team from Beleriand would be logical, but rumors are swirling about The Sea (pun intended) and a hosting possibility that is in the works for them, thus Tirion seems less likely.

Thus it seems that team Valimar is the more likely host, with Armenelos and the Havens likely to visit, supplemented by a Beleriand squad. Unless the inter-dimensional team is placed there (i.e. The Barrow-Downs). Given the sheer distance of Valinor, wouldn't it be an elegant solution to send a team that cares not a whit about distance?

And since we mention The Sea, let's address that now. Ulmo has been very nudge-nudge-wink-wink about the possibility of Tol Eressea as a host site. It wouldn't make any sense if Valimar was also used, if not for a few hints Ulmo has dropped about working on a very large project that would enable a wide variety of spectators to view games. So enough with the hinting and I'll come out and say it- I think Ulmo is working on a mobile sea-faring stadium.

And what a great idea it would be if it is actually pulled off! It would allow them to include in their group three not-so-close squads by virtue of holding games in each of the three locations, e.g. the first round could be in Gondor, the second in Beleriand, and the third back in Valinor. But of course that makes it somewhat impossible to predict which teams might join The Sea in the group.

Now what about the eastern end of Middle-Earth? Last year there were games at Isengard and Moria, and in the playoffs Lothlorien, so what places are there for this year? Well- Gondor obviously, either Minas Tirith or Osgiliath would be straightforward choices. But if The Sea does indeed have a mobile stadium and docks near Gondor for their first round, perhaps it would make sense to have the two groups in proximity, which opens up Dol Amroth and Pelargir as possible host sites (though it would make the primary and secondary stadiums farther apart for the third round matches).

Another easterly location would be Mirkwood and/or Erebor- we know they have attractive accommodations, so they've got to be considered. That would mean Erebor and Wilderland could be grouped together, and more than likely they'd take a team from Gondor or Mordor, and then another team from farther north (Anduin, Misty Mts, Isengard).

If Dol Amroth ends up hosting, then naturally they'd take one of the Gondor teams and one from Mordor, but to fill out the group they'd need some combination of Isengard or Anduin plus some other squad, which says to me that Misty Mts will more than likely end up with Wilderland and Erebor.

Now, what about the Beleriand & Eriador hosts? Since Nargothrond, Michel Delving, Weathertop, and Grey Havens were used last time for groups, I would say they are out. The obvious substitutes are Angband, Gondolin, and Doriath. If I can be allowed to stray into purest conjecture, I would say the lifting of the Valinor ban in conjunction with the expired Rauros contract will land the finals in Valimar, and thus to keep the balance I fully expect Angband to be awarded the semis.

With that in mind, Gondolin and Doriath seem nearly to be absolutes, and given the teams they were grouped with last time around, perhaps each will receive a Valinor team (FC or Real), each will receive an Eriador squad (Eriador, Shire-Bree, Imladris, or Arnor), and each will receive a Beleriand squad (Hithlum, Inter, AC, Nargothrond, TIG, Angfauglith, Angband). But that's too many squads obviously, thus another host site is necessary, and if Angband is already occupied with hosting in the playoffs, why not Anfauglith and Tol In Gaurhoth? If indeed none of the other sites are hosted in a location populated with "baddies", they would be a logical choice to balance things out.

Long story short, teams are going to be a bit more jumbled this year to provide a slight variance in flavor, but all it will involve is shifting last year's host sites to the nearest viable site and trading two teams in one group for a team or two from the next-nearest couple of host sites. Thus we can sort of predict the groupings, but not with much precision. It would be foolish to even post a list of predicted groupings, but guessing at host sites is a little more an exact science, thus in summary, my predicted group hosting sites for 2013 are-

Valimar, Tol Eressea, Anfauglith and/or Tol-In-Gaurhoth, Gondolin, Doriath, Erebor and/or Mirkwood, somewhere in Gondor

Now, if Anfauglith/TIG and Erebor/Mirkwood are indeed used together, that leaves one host site missing. For the remaining site- the options would be somewhere in Mordor, Annuminas/Norbury, Rauros/Dol Guldur, and Dor-Lomin/Hithlum. Football fans that are anxious to travel and support their team, or merely anxious to see if any teams will be close enough to justify a trip, simply cannot wait for the ACC to officially announce the sites. So hurry up already!