[Nogrod]

We see some of our competitors have moved into a kind of “Sport Studio” –set up and have hired “analysts” (read: entertainers) to push up their ratings. Here in the AKM we do believe in the old virtues of journalistic excellence and deep understanding of the game. Therefore it will be, once again, Ugr Nogrendale who delivers to you our readers the spot-on analyses and stats for all the games the AKM will cover this season. Just remember that last year’s Phantasy Game winner Nogrod made all his decisions mostly relying on the AKM’s analysis and suggestions.

So the first round of friendly games – before the Arda Cup finally kicks off – has been underway for the last few days here and there around Arda. The AKM has been following four games more closely. Here’s what Mr. Nogrendale thinks you should learn from them.


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FC Valinor vs. Real Valinor

FC Valinor beat Real Valinor last year two times (2-1 and 3-0) and left nothing to question about the power-balance between the two teams. Yet in the end Real Valinor went on to claim the championship. So it was an interesting match-up to see the two teams meeting once again in the pre-season friendlies.

For this year both teams have cut down their spending – especially FC Valinor has done it, even though more by cutting the salaries of its players than plainly hiring cheaper ones. Boosting up their defence has led to the scaling down of their midfield and that could be seen in the game. So unlike last season when FC Valinor had a sovereign control of the ball around the field, this time Real Valinor had an even possession. And the game was much more equal on every level.

Argon and Yavanna looked more than solid behind the brothers Celegorm and Curufin and were always dangerous coming towards Real’s goal. And with the energy of the brothers FC Valinor was indeed shooting more than Real did.

On Real’s side especially lifting Nessa into a more forward role while moving Enerdhil into a bit more backing-up position was clearly a good idea making Real’s attacks roll more fluently – and if Oromë didn’t exactly shine with his new company of ladies he did well by their side. Tilion on the other hand clearly showed some new energy. Could it then really be that Tilion only shines when Arien is not around?

Buying Eonwë and Thorondor to defend their goal has clearly upgraded FC Valinor’s core-defence but as they have needed to cut the costs somewhat at the same time (they still spend a hefty 107 mil.) their weakness looks to be found now on the midfield where Elemmirë and Indis (4 mil. each) are no substitution for Irmö and Idril (10 mil each). Huan’s saving percentage of just 66% might make some worried, but Huan has been consistently one of the best goalies throughout the history of the Arda Cup and so the AKM wouldn’t worry about that at this point of the season.

The AKM was worried about Real’s defence as soon as the news of them selling Caranthir away was heard. How would they succeed without the “bad cop” in their defence, especially against some of the tougher offences? Well they managed perfectly fine: Nahar and Ingwion kept both Curufin and Celegorm at bay at least as well as Caranthir and Rumil had done. If they keep up the good work, then Nienna nad Tilion have a trusted pair to clear their defences – even giving Tilion leeway to take paet in the offence every once in a while.

There’s one more interesting detail to be mentioned. Elemmírë changed from Real Valinor to FC Valinor for this season, but s/he had to be compensated one million more in salary to make the move. So in the middle of all this cost-cutting it seems Elemmírë is one of the few who got their salaries raised.


The game: a synopsis

FC Valinor came into the game with full force and many thought it would go like the last season. That feeling seemed to be justified with Celegorm scoring from a corner given by Argon at about the half an hour mark. But Real Valinor pulled their act together and started pressing back – and it actually took them only ten minutes to even the score from Tilion’s superb back-door run into the box.

FC Valinor was the more active team again in the beginning of the second half but Real soon got them bogged down and started making some pretty neat counterplay – slowly taking ownership of the midfield led by Nessa’s masterful touch on the ball and eye for distributing it to the right places.

In the middle of a game that looked like it was turning into Real’s favour Yavanna got away from the Real defenders and chipped Curufin’s off target shot in. FC was not going to let Real draw the scores another time, but even their strengthened defence couldn’t stop Nessa this day. From Oromë’s nice pass she finalised the score into 2-2 with a beautiful bicycle-kick from the corner of the box.

In the end both teams seemed content to the draw. But it is clear the draw was a great boost to Real Valinor who now for the first time managed to leave the field from a game against FC Valinor not as losers. FC Valinor on the other hand has some concerns – even if one could say that drawing a game against last year’s champions is not a bad result indeed.

General notion:
Be that as it may, both teams will again be among the top teams this season.

FC Valinor 2-2 Real Valinor
on target 7-6
tot shots 19-14
GOALS:
*29, 1-0 Celegorm (Argon)
*41, 1-1 Tilion (Miriel)
*70, 2-1 Yavanna (Curufin)
*77, 2-2 Nessa (Orome)
YELLOW CARDS:
*FCVal- Indis, Maglor
*RealV- Tilion, Nahar


~*~

Erebor vs. Minas Tirith

Minas Tirith got all the way to the quarterfinals last year and Erebor made it to the semis. So an action-packed game of two great teams to see here? Sadly no. And the reason for it is clear. Erebor has lost two of their key players and Minas Tirith hasn’t exactly gotten definitively stronger either.

And the original cause of that previous remark about Minas Tirith is of course that they are not – and never were – a good team; at least not a team worth a place in the quarterfinals. Although they might seem a bit more decent bunch this year thanks to the firing of the pathetic Faramir from offence and hiring much more energetic looking Eomer to his place. Although one has to say that after a nice start in the friendlies last year (2+2 in four games) Eomer totally froze when the actual tournament began (1+0 in four games – Faramir actually managed 1+2 in five games).

To put it in no uncertain terms, Minas Tirith was one of the poorest teams to qualify – and did it only because their group was the most pathetic of all – and their adversary in the first round of qualifiers was from the second worse group overall. And they made their way to the quarters via a penalty shoot-out aka. basically only by lady Fortuna.

There is one thing to say on behalf of Minas Tirith though and it is the team spirit and companionship they seem to have around. Everyone is, basically (not Eomer this year), paid the same salary – and facing needs to cut down the expenses they have all cut their wages by one million in the name of their brotherhood. And that must be the reason why their only top-quality player Mardil still plays for the team – for surely there would have been takers for a talent like him.

Erebor would have beaten Minas Tirith last year 3-0 or more. Well, on a bad day only 2-0, but you get what I mean. Comparing to last season Erebor is lacking solidity in their attack and stamina in their defence. No, they have clearly enough of both to beat teams like Minas Tirith, but when it comes to some real games against real quality teams one couldn’t be so sure any more.

On a positive note for Erebor one could mention that Smaug seems to be in top condition and even without Gwaihir their defence hasn’t totally collapsed – and Beorn with his 83% saving-rate seems to be showing for real that he is no one-season-wonder at the goal.


The game: a synopsis

It all started pretty slowly as both teams were trying to test each other out while playing it safe (surely Erebor’s insecurity with their weekened downstairs played a role here), but the game gathered some speed little by little. And when Mardil headed a nice chip by Eomer into the goal on 31st minute the electricity was on!

Erebor started pressing forwards but found no easy routes behind “the bus” Minas Tirith parked in front of their box. Meanwhile Minas Tirith kept the Erebor team on its toes with their sharp counter-attacks.

On the second half the crowds saw an infuriated team Erebor. They came on with a force reminding one of their team last year. Nazgul #7 and Smaug were constant threats making the central defence of Minas Tirith very uneasy indeed – but they were backed by none other than Bard and Bolg with their sudden runs and imaginative passes, and toughness to match any king of old they had to field.

It took Erebor some ten minutes to even the score. Smaug was in flames!
After the goal the intensivity of the game went a bit down even if of the two teams it was Erebor which seemed not too happy to draw the game. And they got their winning goal in the end when Smaug scored again, this time from a great freeing pass from Nazgul #7 and tailing it to the back of the net giving Denethor in the goal no say on it.

For the last ten minutes Minas Tirith gave all they had to even the game and were actually able to produce a few good chances, but they were in the end denied by Beorn. When the final whistle was blown neither team looked happy: Minas Tirith had looked for a draw and Erebor for a definitive victory.

General notion:
The game proved that Erebor has a lot to improve for the tougher matches and Minas Tirith needs some support from the heavens if they wish to qualify this year from their group.

Erebor 2-1 Minas Tirith
on target 6-6
tot shots 14-14
GOALS:
*31, 0-1 Mardil (Eomer)
*57, 1-1 Smaug (Bolg)
*79, 2-1 Smaug (Nazgul#7)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Erebor- Bolg, Brand
*MTirith- Tarandor, Firefoot


~*~

Dwarves United vs. Wilderland

Dwarves United dropped Wilderland from the qualification last season in the last round of the group-phase by beating them 2-1. And that happened after Wilderland had beaten them 4-1 in the friendlies – and even beaten the afterwards honoured Erebor 2-1 (losing them with the same numbers in the actual group-game).

In popular memories Wilderland seem to be the real heroes of the last season who just failed miserably or ununderstandably as they should have gone far in the tournament. But looking behind the numbers – and especially to the ones played in the real tournament itself and not just in the friendlies – shows that there is a lot of beating around the bush with team Wilderland.

They were a good team (unlike fex. Minas Tirith) and they played some really entertaining as well as effective football the last season, but in a tight place they were just not able to deliver – and to be fair, there was no way they would have earned their place in the top eight anyway. The question then becomes, how could they deliver this year when they have lost lost something like 60% of their scoring-power? Now Thranduil is a nice steal and a Nazgul is always helpful in offence, but really: losing players like Elwë (2+4/2+1), Galadriel (1+2/2+3) and Oromë (0+1/4+2) is hard to make good, especially when you are cutting your budget down by some 10 million.

Today’s numbers kind of underline the aforementioned fact: while Smaug scores twice with a familiar support for Erebor Scatha scores none for Wilderland.

Now Dwarves United played eight games last year and scored a total of four goals – of which Celebrimbor scored three – from defensive position! What they have done since last season is replacing the sadly performed Thorin and Thror who only picked yellow cards from their midfield with the more or less insignificant Fili and Kili whose only merit is that they will play for the team with half the price.

But like last year, it seems they are counting only on defence. Otherwise it would have been simple they’d hired a scorer for their team – like we heard from NogWolf’s/Wight's negotiations earlier; he could have been just the key to trigger their scoring-problem (although there is also some discussion about the racism of the dwarves – that even with a name they would otherwise cope with, him being a creature of the Barrow-Downs would have been just too much for the fans, and some players, to stomach).

And along those lines they have made one reasonably big trade and bought Galadriel (w*f!) to keep their goal clean. That must be one of the major news of this seasons’ trades indeed! For a lock of her hair she made Gimli her fan forever… now was there something in Gimli that made her a fan of his or dwarves in general as well? She’s payed decently to be sure, but still.

So don’t look forwards for Dwarves United to score heavily – but do anticipate rough times for anyone facing them to score against them.


The game: a synopsis

There is little to tell your grandchildren about this game. Dwarves United was defending as well one could imagine, keeping Wilderland attacks at bay for most of the time and forcing them to shoot from afar and from bad positions the rest of it. Add to that the problems of Wildrerland offence and you get the picture of the first half of the game.

From the start of the second half Wilderland really went for a pressure-mode and Scatha had a few decent chances of scoring but was never getting the backing-up needed or was denied by either the Aulë-led defence or Galadriel at the goal.

Celebrimbor got one boomig shot towards the goal at the latter part of the second half but the Great Warg was a warg in his place and glued the ball into his paws. After the final whistle the Wilderland players looked somewhat disappointed but no one could read the faces of the dwarves covered by the beards.

General notion:
Dwarves United looks dangerously tight team on defence once again, but facing the kind of offencive powerhouses they do this year it would be madness to bet on behalf of their qualification. Wilderland in turn doesn’t seem to have any more rosier future ahead of them than last year.


Dwarves United 0-0 Wilderland
on target 3-3
tot shots 8-12
GOALS:
*
YELLOW CARDS:
*DwUnt- Fili, Azaghal
*Wilder- Oropher, Imin


~*~

Anduin vs. Eriador

Anduin was probably one of the best teams to have lost their group last season (Tirion and Valimar being the obvious ones to precede them in quality) and for this year they have actually been strengthened thanks to the willingness of different investment houses to keep their money, and even add something to it, with team Anduin – and it seems quite clear they have what it takes to qualify from their group this year – but will they be able to keep on after that?

Eriador on the other hand has also being able to put in more money – but have they strengthened by that as a team remains to be seen. On paper the team looks tougher than ever, but there is a big questionmark there, both on offence and defence.

Now Anduin has made two great purchases for this year: Felarof for defence and Eorl for offence. Looking at that one could say that it was a great deed to not let the last year’s silver medalists to score but one goal – and that they didn’t score against one of the toughest defences and arguably the best goalkeeper aronud is basically not a fault of them either.

But somehow – and this is the writer’s gut feeling only – the result looks more like telling about the possible problems on the Eriador-side. Somehow putting Arwen and Aragorn into defence with big salaries doesn’t convince – especially when they break the tried and well-worked defence-quartet from last year. The new defence costs eight million more but is it that much better – or is it even as good?

Another issue is changing the always sure to score Witch King in offence into Isildur who has basically flopped in every team he has played thus far. Eriador didn’t go that far in the tournament last year just outscoring their opponents either, but they had the players to score when it was needed. This year they still have Arveleg and Glorfindel, but will it be enough?

Which brings us to the third issue: NogWight. No one denies he’s a strong player, an intelligent passer and a good scorer – as a werewolf. In this game we got the other side of him. As a Wight he’s being just too slow, too soft, too late and then too frustrated to only pick a card for his efforts. It may be Eriador will be missing Arahael as the season progresses.


The game: a synopsis

Both teams approach the game from defence on and it could be seen in the game. In the early minutes of the game both teams did try to make some shots every once in a while but the defences were pretty efficient in forcing them wide or plain denying them.

Neither team seemed to put their full effort into the game in the beginning of the first half, but before the half-time the game started to be at least somewhat entertaining when especially Grimbeorn and Glorfindel showed off some of their talent supported by Eorl and Arveleg respectively.

Eriador came to the second half a lot more sharply and it was actually no surprise Glorfindel scored just two minutes into the half with a great personal performance, from a nice pass by the newbie Arador though. After the goal the game got something of a live kick and the rest was more or less good football – even if it produced only a few scoring chances and no more goals. Both teams had one decent chace to score during the last half an hour. Grimbeorn hit the crossbar with a volley from the edge of the box twenty minutes before the end, whilst Arveleg slided the ball just inches away from the post in the end of a fast break initiated by Araphant.

Neither team celebrated the result but seemed generally happy about it.

General notion:
Neither team shone but showed some of their qualities. Counting on this game only one coul bet they will be hard to beat for most teams in the actual tournament.


Anduin 0-1 Eriador
on target 2-4
tot shots 9-12
GOALS:
*47, 0-1 Glorfindel (Arador)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Anduin- Lenwe
*Eriador- Aragorn, NogWight