[The Saucepan Man]

Group A

It looks like, after the poor showing of Erebor and Dale in last year’s competition, they have combined under Erebor’s banner to improve their prospects. In Thorin and Bard, they have two good strikers, but neither lived up to expectations in 2006, and I suspect that they will struggle to find the service that they need from the weak midfield. Roac is well past his best and Fili and Kili, while enthusiastic, lack experience at this level. The defence is solid, but lacks mobility, and Bombur is a definite weak link in this regard. Smaug will no doubt acquit himself well in goal, but the team would have been better advised to use his fiery pace up front.

Moria will undoubtedly once more experience problems with their team spirit. Combining Orcs, Balrogs and Dwarves in the same team never bodes well. There are some brilliant individual talents, but can they play as a team? Balin and Azog are redoubtable forwards, but can they build a partnership? Durin’s Bane is a sizzling talent on the wing, but how well can he combine with Durin? The defence is packed with journeyman players, with the exception of Celebrimbor. But even he lacks guile and can be easily be fooled by trickery. The Watcher in the Water was born to play in goal, but I suspect that it won’t be nearly enough to stop this team leaking goals.

Valinor has always had a strong defence and will let in few goals. Varda is a star goalkeeper and, in Manwe and Aule, they have two of the most experienced central defenders in the competition. Tulkas is a strong forward, who will hold up play well, allowing Mandos and Eonwe to get forward into the box. Their prime weakness lays in the two Blue Midfielders, who are prone to go missing at times. However, while they may not score as many goals as some of the teams in this competition, they won’t let many in either. Expect a quarter final finish at least.

I fully expect Angband to win this Group. Finalists last year, they have always shown themselves to be dangerous. Melkor is one of the most masterful forwards in the competition. Strong, relentless and ruthless, he has an excellent understanding with his strike partner, Gothmog. The midfield is talented too, with Thuringwethil’s blood-curdling pace and the trickery of Ulfast and Uldor providing strong support to the forwards, while Ungoliant lurks further back in a holding role to pick off the unwary. If they have a weakness, it’s their defence. It is simply too crowded with big beasts and big egos. But expect them to make up for this by scoring far more goals than they let in.

Saucepan’s prediction:

This is a strong Group and both Erebor and Moria would stand a good chance against weaker opposition. But I can’t see them prevailing over the might of Valinor and Angband.

Group winners: Angband
Group runners up: Valinor
First round elimination: Erebor and Moria

Group B

Brethil are newcomers to this competiton, and I can’t see them going very far. Turambar is by far their strongest player, but will lack support from the relatively unknown midfield. Haleth is certainly a strong defender, but Brandir’s mobility must be suspect as he is carrying a long-term injury. This team might be able to hold out for a while, even against some of the better teams, but they will be overmastered in the end.

On paper, Lothlorien looks like a good team, and its defence is definately strong. Galadriel can stifle even the most determined attack and has a good understanding with Celeborn in central defence who, in turn, marshals the remaining defenders wisely. The midfield is strong too. It is heartening to see a veteran like Gandalf still doing the business, while Gimli is always eager to get on the attack. Arwen tends to hang back, particularly after having been vilified by fans for trying to get into the action up front, but she provides good support. The problem is up front. Amdir and Amroth, both relatively unknown, simply aren’t up to it at this level.

Who can argue with the quality of a team that boasts Elf Lords all over the pitch? Tuna, although new to the competition, has to be one of the favourites. Feanor and Finwe combine magnificently up front, with fantastic support from an exceptional midfield. Amras, Amrod and Maglor are experienced defenders and, even if a skilled attacker can find his way through Maglor’s gap, he will still have the strength and skill of Fingolfin in goal to beat.

The surprise package of last year’s competition, The Shire are fielding a somewhat different line up this year. The superb partnerships of Merry and Pippin up front and Sam and Frodo in midfield have been broken up, with Merry’s move to Buckland and Frodo’s transfer to Tol Eressea. But Pippin is still a class striker and the promise of his pace with the power of the Bullroarer is a mouth-watering prospect. Similarly, I expect Sam to combine well with his Gaffer, although I have my doubts about the remainder of the midfield. The Old Took provides experience in defence, but the Cottons are yet to prove themselves and Ted Sandyman is prone to lapses in judgement. Lobelia can be intimidating in goal, but they will let a few in. They will have to score more than they let in to have any chance of repeating last year‘s performance.

Saucepan’s prediction:

Tuna are the runaway favourites, but expect strong competiton from the Shire. Brethil are also-rans, while Lothlorien are unlikely to score enough to get them through the Group.

Group winners: Tuna
Group runners up: The Shire
First round elimination: Brethil and Lothlorien

Group C

We can’t expect much from Niggle's Parish, I’m afraid. They struggled to qualify for the finals, and have only two players worthy of note. Niggle is a reasonable enough goalkeeper, but prone to distraction, while Parish is a decent finisher, but may struggle to find his form in the early stages. The defence is utterly insubstantial and they have very little going forward. They are completely out of their depth here.

Numenore proved last year that their defence is strong, although the central partnership of Aldarion and Erendis is prone to misunderstanding. While none of their players stands out as an exceptional individual talent, they combine well as a team. If they have a weakness, it is their eagerness to go on the attack, which can leave them liable to be swamped at the back when their attacks break down.

In Mormegil, Nargothrond have the top-scoring player of the 2006 competition. He has established a superb partnership with Felagund and they can expect excellent support from the midfield. Curufin and Celegorm are great defenders, but the team has a tendency leave itself vulnerable at the back against opponents quick to counter-attack. Expect lots and lots of goals, both for and against.

Buckland have an accomplished striker in Meriadoc Brandybuck but, as a lone stiker, he needs support and he is not going to find it in this very defensive midfield line-up. Farmer Maggot is sturdy and dependable, while Gildor is skilful and swift of foot. But neither they nor their midfield partners are players who like to get forward. Fatty Bolger is alert, marshal’s the defence well and has a surprising turn of pace, but there’s not enough here to persuade me that they can progress.

Saucepan’s prediction:

Niggle’s Parish are no hopers in this Group. Expect Buckland to put up a reasonable fight, but I don’t think it will be enough.

Group winners: Nargothrond
Group runners up: Numenore
First round elimination: Buckland and Niggle’s Parish

Group D

Brodda is an unknown quantity in goal and Dor Lomin cannot necessarily rely on him, but they nevertheless have a good defence, with the steely Morwen leading the line, although Nienor can be anonymous at times. They also have a formidable attacking trio in Turin, Fingon and Galdor. But the midfield is static and uninspiring, and Sador is another player hampered by long-term injury.

Mordor proved themselves a worthy team in last year’s finals, and they look to have strengthened in the interim. Team captain Sauron and the Witch-King are a proven and deadly strike force and they can expect good support from well-disciplined midfield. Orcs can be prone to dissent among themselves, but Sauron maintains strict discipline over them with a firm nine-fingered hand. Shelob doesn’t let many through her net, but can be prone to consume her defenders. Ufthak had better watch out!

Tol Eressea are new to the competiton, but are my pick for this year’s surprise package. Frodo played a big part in The Shire’s progress to the semi-finals last year, playing as an attacking midfielder. He has now been given the opportunity to prove himself up front, and I see him overcoming the odds to come good in the end. Earendil and Elwing provide pace on the wings, while Uinen plays the holding role, allowing the tempestuous Osse to get forward with the ball.

It’s easy to underrate an unknown quantity like Roverandom. But, with a Dragon and a Sea Serpent in defence and a midfield Wizard, they should not be underestimated. Team captain Roverandom is dogged on the attack, but cannot expect much support from newcomer the Man in the Moon, whose fitness is subject to question (if the rumours of late night parties are to be believed). They may put in some decent performances, but they probably don’t have enough to advance from a strong Group like this.

Saucepan’s prediction:

A quite tight Group, but Mordor will certainly go through. Of the others, I see Tol Eressea having the quality to progress.

Group winners: Mordor
Group runners up: Tol Eressea
First round elimination: Dor Lomin and Roverandom