[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

However, we might assume the Evil Wizard does not follow your train of thought.

Quite possible. But since so many people seem to have been thinking along the same lines, I think it more likely that s/he does. The EW is almost certain to be one with experience of Werewolves.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Logically, the Good Wizard would scry those whom he believes likely to be the Evil Wizard. And likely candidates for that profession are generally those you deliberately excluded from your list.

I’m not so sure. Would someone who was likely to be scryed or dreamed of early on really volunteer to be the EW? And would they be selected as such? I rather doubt it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I can't help thinking that the EW might have actually chosen these "big guys" since he/she might predict that we make the kind of assumptions of intelligent-but-not-big-guys -players as I did in my last post. It seems that the theory is quite basic since it occured to me without much thinking, so I think the EW would try to avoid such predictable choices.

The EW most likely has plenty of time to go for the “big names”. I still think it highly unlikely that s/he would go for anyone likely to be dreamed of (or lynched) on Day 1. The fact that the theory is an obvious one would not stop the EW following it, as it still leaves a lot of names to choose from.

Originally Posted by spawn

Well, usually the villagers are ready to give a newcomer the benefit of doubt, a Seer won't usually bother to dream of someone completely new and depending on who the Wizards are, I think it's possible that the idea of making Loki a Wolf intrigued the EW.

I am not disregarding Loki because he was a likely Seer dream, but because he is a likely Day 1 lynch (more likely than many others). Anyone perusing the discussions which occurred prior to the arrival of our Wizards would have been able to deduce as much.

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

... but SPM, you didn't even mention that in your "lists", making up three possible wolf teams that did not include Loki at all. That struck me as odd, if not a little careless coming from you.

He’s not on my list because I do not trust his claim and because he falls into the “possible Day 1 lynch” category.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Which is, ironically, saying that we should be looking for those of less 'ww repute'. Not a pleasant thing to be accusing people of. In fact, I'm entirely offended that I am even considered on you list.

Ah, being on the list does not make you a worse Werewolf player than the “big names”. In fact, it should be taken as a compliment, as I listed those players who I would want on my side, if I was the EW, but who are less likely to be spotted or lynched on Day 1 than some others I could mention.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think we should preferably look at the actions of people (I know it's difficult on day 1), since we really can't predict the wizard tactics (or at least I can't).

All in good time. As this is Day 1, I see no reason not to use other strategies to help us find the Wolves or the EW. Considering who might have been chosen as the EW, and who the EW might have chosen as a Wolf are two such strategies.

Originally Posted by Celuien

Killed wolves can be replaced overnight, so why bother to save them in the day and risk a self-exposure?

The EW wants to make as many Wolves as possible, and so is likely to try to steer the village away from lynching his/her chosen ones, provided it does not risk exposing him. S/he is the only one who knows who both of them are. We would be lucky indeed to spot him/her today, but this knowledge might serve us well in future Days.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Now, I'm just saying, that if I were a wizard, of any persuasion, I would have chosen Lalaith. She's my number one pick for the wolf-who-was-cured. And I base that on pretty much nothing but a feeling.

An excellent point. Lalaith or Firefoot would be good choices, but there are others too. By deleting from my previous list those who I think the GW might pick as a choice of Gifted, I can narrow it down further, as follows:

Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang

My vote will come later, but it will most likely be for one of those.