The story in "Aelfwine and Dirhavel" 1 that Mablung survived and came to the mouths of Sirion certainly supercedes the story in TN. And we have no later evidence that the story reverted to the earlier one. So I would say that in our version Mablung must be supposed to survive and make it to the havens.
In view of the invalidation of the story of Mablung as told in TN, my first inclination is to take Findegil's easy way out and leave him out of the hunt completely.
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