Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Firefoot · 06-03-2005, 12:57 PM

Fordim, your strategy would be excellent for flushing out werewolves if it were mathematically sound. There is a ratio of roughly 4 villagers:1 werewolf; a list of three random people is more likely to include three innocent villagers than even two villagers and one werewolf. At odds of 2 villagers:1 werewolf, such a theory would be plausible, but with only about one-fifth of the people being a werewolf, the odds are pretty bad.

I suppose they're bad anyway, but I'd rather be casting a vote off of a full list that is sure to include werewolves than a random short list which is probable not to have a werewolf.

Your point about not reaching a consensus is understood, but I don't think we need a short list to do so. For the moment, I'd rather keep the field open.

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06-03-2005, 12:57 PM	#23
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Fordim, your strategy would be excellent for flushing out werewolves if it were mathematically sound. There is a ratio of roughly 4 villagers:1 werewolf; a list of three random people is more likely to include three innocent villagers than even two villagers and one werewolf. At odds of 2 villagers:1 werewolf, such a theory would be plausible, but with only about one-fifth of the people being a werewolf, the odds are pretty bad. I suppose they're bad anyway, but I'd rather be casting a vote off of a full list that is sure to include werewolves than a random short list which is probable not to have a werewolf. Your point about not reaching a consensus is understood, but I don't think we need a short list to do so. For the moment, I'd rather keep the field open.