WWJ III - Nan Qualinmerë: Death Wish Valley - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Anguirel · 01-30-2006, 01:18 AM

I must apologise for my complete silence yesterday. Unavoidable things occurred. If only I could have been there to join in the wolf catching glory...

I hope to redeem myself with plenty of analysis today.

My first point today is that we should remember that we are not told the Cursed Villager's role when they die. Mith in particular seems to assume they're definitely still among us; but though the chance should not be underestimated, only four villagers still live and six are dead, so there's a 60% chance now that the Cursed One is slain already. So its conversion is an eventuality to be wary of, but not to actually quail in fear of.

EDIT: I corrected this percentage. I am chronic at Maths...

01-30-2006, 01:18 AM	#11
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	I must apologise for my complete silence yesterday. Unavoidable things occurred. If only I could have been there to join in the wolf catching glory... I hope to redeem myself with plenty of analysis today. My first point today is that we should remember that we are not told the Cursed Villager's role when they die. Mith in particular seems to assume they're definitely still among us; but though the chance should not be underestimated, only four villagers still live and six are dead, so there's a 60% chance now that the Cursed One is slain already. So its conversion is an eventuality to be wary of, but not to actually quail in fear of. EDIT: I corrected this percentage. I am chronic at Maths... __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso Last edited by Anguirel; 01-30-2006 at 09:01 AM.

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