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Old 05-01-2005, 11:00 AM   #11
Nuranar
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Tolkien Concerning Numbers

From page 2 of the discussion:

In reference to Saurreg's comment that only 100 of the Rearguard are left:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuranar
Point of information: If there's only about 100 fighting men left, how many civilians are there? And how many of these are councillors/courtiers/something to do with government?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kransha
There are more civilians than soldiers, but not much. The exact number is up to you or anyone else who cares to throw a number about, as long as its not too many (remember, a lot of the poorer civilians lived in the outermost sanctum of Fornost, which was completely destroyed, and many in the second level were slain. All courtiers and ministers save a few survived, though. There are probably 50 people who have ties to the King (courtiers, etc), but that's not definitive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuranar
And thanks for the answers, Kransha. So, there's around 100 military types, around 50 king-civilians, and, say, 75 plain civilians? I can work with that.
Those numbers for the civilians were estimates to help me in visualizing the situation. I reach them by a sort of mental algebra:
  1. Kransha said there are more civilians than soldiers. Thus the Number of Civilians (X) must be greater than 100. So X > 100.
  2. 50 out of the X are courtiers and so forth. Logically, the ordinary civilians would outnumber those. So the Number of Ordinary Civilians (X-50) > 50.
  3. I arbitrarily chose (X-50) = 75. Therefore X = 125. (X-5) is significantly larger than the number of courtiers, and X is larger than the number of soldiers. Therefore X, total civilians, outnumber the soldiers, but not by much, as Kransha stipulated.

Keep in mind, these are round numbers - approximations only.

If we take Saurreg's estimate of only 50 soldiers left after the orc-fight, we're down to a total of 175 people, with the civilians now forming more than 70% of that. However, that's not calculating any civilian deaths along the way. Illness, poor and diminishing food, harsh weather, continuous travel and exertion, and accidents, just to name a few, should have killed a number of civilians - particularly young children, the weak/sick, wounded, &c. The cumulative nature of most of these factors will mean that more are likely to die. ALSO, these are far more likely to be plain civilians than courtiers. After a little consideration, I'd say we'll have lost a good 10-20 civilians, only a couple of them courtiers. This could easily be more, if accounted for by an outbreak of a specific illness. By specific, I mean something contagious and exacerbated by cold and weakness (influenza??), instead of simply lots of pneumonia.

How's that for trivializing the momentous and complicating the obvious?
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